Championship Draft comparison

As a way of considering exactly how amazing psych dog's draft outcome was, I'm comparing the championship squads drafts and what they kept.

Round	Pick#	psychdog	Points	Rank	Pick#	TTM	Points	Ranking
1	-3	Christian McCaffrey (Car - RB)	327.9	RB 1	-5	Nick Chubb (Cle - RB)	217.3	RB 6
2	-18	Damien Williams (KC - RB)			-16	JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pit - WR)	72	WR 60
3	-23	Zach Ertz (Phi - TE)	124.8	TE 2	-25	Aaron Jones (GB - RB)	228.1	RB 4
4	-38	Leonard Fournette (Jax - RB)	179.9	RB 10	-36	Robert Woods (LAR - WR)	119	WR 27
5	-43	Chris Carson (Sea - RB)	188.2	RB 9	-45	Kenny Golladay (Det - WR)	170.2	WR 4
6	-58	Calvin Ridley (Atl - WR)			-56	Evan Engram (NYG - TE)
7	-63	Dede Westbrook (Jax - WR)			-65	Miles Sanders (Phi - RB)	158.76	RB 13
8	-78	Lamar Jackson (Bal - QB)	389.71	QB 1	-76	Christian Kirk (Ari - WR)	95.66	WR 44
9	-83	Derrius Guice (Was - RB)			-85	Jameis Winston (TB - QB)
10	-98	Jarvis Landry (Cle - WR)			-96	Kenyan Drake (Ari - RB)
11	-103	Matt Breida (SF - RB)			-105	Los Angeles (LAC - DEF)
12	-118	Michael Gallup (Dal - WR)			-116	Jason Myers (Sea - K)
13	-123	Tom Brady (NE - QB)	234.25	QB 13	-125	Darius Leonard (Ind - LB)
14	-138	Joey Bosa (LAC - DE)			-136	Marshon Lattimore (NO - CB)
15	-143	Leighton Vander Esch (Dal - LB)			-145	J.J. Watt (Hou - DE)
16	-158	Landon Collins (Was - S)			-156	Deion Jones (Atl - LB)
17	-163	T.J. Watt (Pit - LB)			-165	Cory Littleton (LAR - LB)	72.5	LB 6
18	-178	Philadelphia (Phi - DEF)			-176	Jimmy Garoppolo (SF - QB)
19	-183	Myles Garrett (Cle - DE)			-185	Nyheim Hines (Ind - RB)
20	-198	Jake Elliott (Phi - K)			-196	Donte Moncrief (Car - WR)
Total Points			1444.76				1133.52

psychdog - it's no secret why they're in the championship. Having the two top MVP candidates in Jackson and McCaffrey at QB1 and RB1 respectively is probably enough for top scoring squad honors on its own.  But add to that two top 10 RBs and the TE2 and the writing was on the wall for a historic season. And they cut bait on failed picks quickly:

Dropped
Dede Westbrook - September 27th
Damien Williams - October 23rd
Calvin Ridley - December 11th

Any risk on taking Jackson 8th was defrayed with taking Brady later, although not many would have predicted the degree of consensus change between the two.  Still the draft's excellence hinges on Jackson and McCaffrey.  Jackson was 88 points ahead of QB 2 and McCaffrey was 83 points ahead of RB 2. They weren't just #1 they were #1!

TakingTigerMountain  - TTM had a solid, workmanlike draft. Two top six RBs and a top 5 WR in the first five picks and a notable flex in the seven spot.   Winston had a wildly inconsistent season ending at QB 5. While it's difficult to see, TTM riding out a 10-3 record with Winston's rocky middle of the season, he's been dominant the last two weeks and TTM has been chasing QB points all season.  Unlike psychdog TTM was slow to admit defeat on bad assets:

Dropped

Winston - October 23rd
Engram - December 14th
Smith-Schuster - Not yet

Smith-Schuster was a reasonable bet at #16.However, he was likely sunk cost after Rothlesburger was out for the season. TTM tried to stash him on the bench as upside, and then let him molder after week 12 with injuries.  Engram looked like a big win with a shot at a top 3 TE spot before injury derailed him. The writing was on the wall, but he remained on TTM's bench until officially IR'd in the middle of the playoffs. Hits on Golladay and Sanders gave TTM some leeway which could have been better spent on QB flexibility and waiver improvements.

Playoff History

BDT and TTM lead the playoff appearances on the strength of their consistent regular season play.

Team	Playoff Appearances
BuildingDwellingThinking	8
TakingTigerMountain	8
Phat Girlz	7
Aethernauts	7
San Francisco Ferries	7
Psychdog	6
Pelican Brief	6
Trichs	5
Polk High Panthers	3
Homespun	2
Grossman Sachs	2
Brooklyn Bashers	1
Tusken Raiders	1
Goslings	1
Dijonaise	1
Cursed	1

TTM and Aethernauts are the most under performing playoff teams, drawing high seeds and losing in their first round regularly. The Ferries, Homespun, Trichs and psychdog are all at the top of the rankings on the strength of low seed champion years.

Team	Finish +/- Seed
San Francisco Ferries	7
Homespun	6
Trichs	5
Psychdog	3
Goslings	2
Tusken Raiders	1
Dijonaise	1
Cursed	1
Pelican Brief	0
Brooklyn Bashers	-1
Phat Girlz	-1
Grossman Sachs	-2
Building Dwelling Thinking	-4
Polk High Panthers	-5
TakingTigerMountain	-7
Aethernauts	-7

The 1 seed unsurprisingly still leads, although a 1 hasn't won since 2017. Bad news, news good news for psychdog as no team has yet repeated in consecutive years, but no team has ever drawn the 1 seed the year after winning it all. Pelican Brief will take a shot at ending the 4 seed's goose egg (they're already responsible for two of them) and their own playoff win drought.

SEED #	# CHAMP	%
#1 SEED	4	40.0%
#2 SEED	1	10.0%
#3 SEED	1	10.0%
#4 SEED	0	0.0%
#5 SEED	2	20.0%
#6 SEED	2	20.0%

Utter parity in the four and five games as expected.

SEED #	# VICTORY	%
#4 SEED	5	50.0%
#5 SEED	5	50.0%

And confirmation that the six seeds give the threes a run for their money pretty often.

SEED #	# VICTORY	%
#3 SEED	6	60.0%
#6 SEED	4	40.0%

And the furthest round the seeds advance to.  Threes and sixes  have a good track record making the finals if they clear the first round, buoyed by twos long history of going out in the semis.

SEED #	Finals	Semi	Quarter
#1 SEED	7	3
#2 SEED	2	8
#3 SEED	5	1	4
#4 SEED	1	4	5
#5 SEED	2	3	5
#6 SEED	3	1	6

And finally, the rings. We have a rare opportunity at three new outcomes this year. A new co-leader (psychdog wins). A new multiple winner (Phat Girlz, BDT, SFF, or TTM win). Or a first time winner (Pelican wins). One of those things will happen.

Team	Rings		Last #1
Trichs	3		2017
Psychdog	2		2019
Phat Girlz	1	*	2014
Building Dwelling Thinking	1		2012
Homespun	1		2010
San Francisco Ferries	1		2016
TakingTigerMountain	1		2011

Regular Season History

The playoffs are the big prize, but year in year out regular season games are how you get there. After eleven years of play, TTM and BDT stand apart on their conistent quality regular season play. Remarkable consistency by Pelican Brief with five 7-win seasons.  The shape and size of the league have changed over the years. For many of the 12 or 14 team years with conferences 7 wins was not enough to guarantee a playoff spot. This year with a smaller league we welcome our first 5-win playoff team.  I have removed the teams that played 2 years or less with us, but left familiar names from yesteryear.

	Wins	Winning Percentage	Years 8 or more wins	Years 7 or more wins
TakingTigerMountain	90	0.629	8	9
BuildingDwellingThinking	88	0.615	7	8
Aethernauts	75	0.577	5	7
Grossman Sachs	36	0.554	2	3
Phat Girlz	78	0.545	5	7
Trichs	75	0.524	4	5
Pelican Brief	72	0.503	3	8
San Francisco Ferries	70	0.490	4	7
Psychdog	65	0.455	3	5
Homespun	56	0.392	1	2
Polk High Panthers	44	0.376	2	3
Tusken Raiders	23	0.354	1	2
Dijonaise	32	0.352	1	1