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Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Championship Draft comparison



As a way of considering exactly how amazing psych dog's draft outcome was, I'm comparing the championship squads drafts and what they kept.


RoundPick# psychdog PointsRankPick# TTMPointsRanking
1-3Christian McCaffrey (Car - RB)327.9RB 1-5Nick Chubb (Cle - RB)217.3RB 6
2-18

-16JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pit - WR)72WR 60
3-23Zach Ertz (Phi - TE)124.8TE 2-25Aaron Jones (GB - RB)228.1RB 4
4-38Leonard Fournette (Jax - RB)179.9RB 10-36Robert Woods (LAR - WR)119WR 27
5-43Chris Carson (Sea - RB)188.2RB 9-45Kenny Golladay (Det - WR)170.2WR 4
6-58

-56

7-63

-65Miles Sanders (Phi - RB)158.76RB 13
8-78Lamar Jackson (Bal - QB)389.71QB 1-76Christian Kirk (Ari - WR)95.66WR 44
9-83

-85

10-98

-96

11-103

-105

12-118

-116

13-123Tom Brady (NE - QB)234.25QB 13-125

14-138

-136

15-143

-145

16-158

-156

17-163

-165Cory Littleton (LAR - LB)72.5LB 6
18-178

-176

19-183

-185

20-198

-196

Total Points


1444.76


1133.52


psychdog - it's no secret why they're in the championship. Having the two top MVP candidates in Jackson and McCaffrey at QB1 and RB1 respectively is probably enough for top scoring squad honors on its own.  But add to that two top 10 RBs and the TE2 and the writing was on the wall for a historic season. And they cut bait on failed picks quickly:

Dropped
Dede Westbrook - September 27th
Damien Williams - October 23rd
Calvin Ridley - December 11th

Any risk on taking Jackson 8th was defrayed with taking Brady later, although not many would have predicted the degree of consensus change between the two.  Still the draft's excellence hinges on Jackson and McCaffrey.  Jackson was 88 points ahead of QB 2 and McCaffrey was 83 points ahead of RB 2. They weren't just #1 they were #1!

TakingTigerMountain  - TTM had a solid, workmanlike draft. Two top six RBs and a top 5 WR in the first five picks and a notable flex in the seven spot.   Winston had a wildly inconsistent season ending at QB 5. While it's difficult to see, TTM riding out a 10-3 record with Winston's rocky middle of the season, he's been dominant the last two weeks and TTM has been chasing QB points all season.  Unlike psychdog TTM was slow to admit defeat on bad assets:

Dropped

Winston - October 23rd
Engram - December 14th
Smith-Schuster - Not yet

Smith-Schuster was a reasonable bet at #16.However, he was likely sunk cost after Rothlesburger was out for the season. TTM tried to stash him on the bench as upside, and then let him molder after week 12 with injuries.  Engram looked like a big win with a shot at a top 3 TE spot before injury derailed him. The writing was on the wall, but he remained on TTM's bench until officially IR'd in the middle of the playoffs. Hits on Golladay and Sanders gave TTM some leeway which could have been better spent on QB flexibility and waiver improvements.


Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Playoff History


BDT and TTM lead the playoff appearances on the strength of their consistent regular season play.

TeamPlayoff Appearances
BuildingDwellingThinking8
TakingTigerMountain8
Phat Girlz7
Aethernauts7
San Francisco Ferries7
Psychdog6
Pelican Brief6
Trichs5
Polk High Panthers3
Homespun 2
Grossman Sachs 2
Brooklyn Bashers1
Tusken Raiders1
Goslings1
Dijonaise1
Cursed1


TTM and Aethernauts are the most under performing playoff teams, drawing high seeds and losing in their first round regularly. The Ferries, Homespun, Trichs and psychdog are all at the top of the rankings on the strength of low seed champion years.

TeamFinish +/- Seed
San Francisco Ferries7
Homespun 6
Trichs5
Psychdog3
Goslings2
Tusken Raiders1
Dijonaise1
Cursed1
Pelican Brief0
Brooklyn Bashers-1
Phat Girlz-1
Grossman Sachs -2
Building Dwelling Thinking-4
Polk High Panthers-5
TakingTigerMountain-7
Aethernauts-7


The 1 seed unsurprisingly still leads, although a 1 hasn't won since 2017. Bad news, news good news for psychdog as no team has yet repeated in consecutive years, but no team has ever drawn the 1 seed the year after winning it all. Pelican Brief will take a shot at ending the 4 seed's goose egg (they're already responsible for two of them) and their own playoff win drought.

SEED ## CHAMP%
#1 SEED440.0%
#2 SEED110.0%
#3 SEED110.0%
#4 SEED00.0%
#5 SEED220.0%
#6 SEED220.0%



Utter parity in the four and five games as expected.

SEED ## VICTORY%
#4 SEED550.0%
#5 SEED550.0%



And confirmation that the six seeds give the threes a run for their money pretty often.

SEED ## VICTORY%
#3 SEED660.0%
#6 SEED440.0%


And the furthest round the seeds advance to.  Threes and sixes  have a good track record making the finals if they clear the first round, buoyed by twos long history of going out in the semis.


SEED #FinalsSemiQuarter
#1 SEED73
#2 SEED28
#3 SEED514
#4 SEED145
#5 SEED235
#6 SEED316


And finally, the rings. We have a rare opportunity at three new outcomes this year. A new co-leader (psychdog wins). A new multiple winner (Phat Girlz, BDT, SFF, or TTM win). Or a first time winner (Pelican wins). One of those things will happen.

TeamRings
Last #1
Trichs3
2017
Psychdog2
2019
Phat Girlz1*2014
Building Dwelling Thinking1
2012
Homespun 1
2010
San Francisco Ferries1
2016
TakingTigerMountain1
2011




Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Regular Season History



The playoffs are the big prize, but year in year out regular season games are how you get there. After eleven years of play, TTM and BDT stand apart on their conistent quality regular season play. Remarkable consistency by Pelican Brief with five 7-win seasons.  The shape and size of the league have changed over the years. For many of the 12 or 14 team years with conferences 7 wins was not enough to guarantee a playoff spot. This year with a smaller league we welcome our first 5-win playoff team.  I have removed the teams that played 2 years or less with us, but left familiar names from yesteryear.


WinsWinning PercentageYears 8 or more winsYears 7 or more wins
TakingTigerMountain900.62989
BuildingDwellingThinking880.61578
Aethernauts750.57757
Grossman Sachs 360.55423
Phat Girlz780.54557
Trichs750.52445
Pelican Brief720.50338
San Francisco Ferries700.49047
Psychdog650.45535
Homespun 560.39212
Polk High Panthers440.37623
Tusken Raiders230.35412
Dijonaise320.35211