Playoff Preview - Bay Area Bash

The Brief draws the #4 seed after their MNF defeat in the Game of the Century, which sets up the Bay Area Bash. This is a rematch of Week 9, which the Brief took by a slim 6 point margin.

What to expect:

QB Explosions (& Cross Titrations)
Aaron Rodgers draws a cherry of match-up at home against the Raiders secondary, while Cam will see the desperate Falcons in Charlotte. There's not much chance of the Raiders suddenly stepping up and finding a winning defensive strategy against the Pack's many headed monster. But there is some chance that Atlanta may at least attempt to limit Cam's groundwork. Cam got slaughtered against Atlanta in October, throwing three picks and netting his lowest QBR of the year. The Brief can bring Carolina's time-share RB into the mix (presuming Gerhart doesn't draw another start). Stewart picked up 48 and a TD against the Falcons last time, so the Firm will hope for a repeat of that result. The Ferries will bring the Green Bay D/ST to bear, and without Run DMC, the Raiders could be in for a singularly pathetic day. It seems impossible that even a few pick sixes by his own D could keep Rodgers from his weekly 22, but if nothing else, it should keep him away from 30.

Patriot Day
Wes Welker takes his injury-waiting-to-happen to Fedex Field in D.C. against a tough Skins coverage. He's the center of the Pelicans' air-game and picking up 10+ is crucial to victory here. In addition the Grisham-ites can bring the Pats' D/ST against a Washington squad that has surrendered the 3rd most fantasy points to the position. With Helu in the backfield the Skins haven't looked quite as hapless lately - Fred Davis' suspension will hurt, but this could be a low-ball if Brady takes a big lead and they give back a few garbage TDs, New England doesn't have the pass rush to make significant D/ST points for itself. The Ferries bring the other freakish piece of the New England offense - the GRONK. With 8 TDs in the last five games, he's a threat to suck the air out of the Welker titration balloon. And he's every bit as vital to the Ferries' chances. San Francisco can also field RB2 Green-Ellis, who has found paydirt for two straight weeks. He'll need to do the same to be a factor. With the Space Ghost at kicker, they'll hope for the usual 4 PATs and a FG - fwiw, the Skins have given up the most points to kickers.

Sleeper Must Awaken:
The last two weeks Michael Turner has turned in sub-par performances against tough defenses. If the Pelicans are going to dominate this week they need their bell-cow leading the others to pasture. Carolina is surrendering the most fantasy points to RBs, if he can't do it this week then the rumors of his Turner Overdrives' late year low-gear problems could be fatal.

If the Ferries want to win they'll need to beat the Pelicans on the ground. If Kevin Smith misses this week, then they'll need Pierre Thomas or Hillis (hip) to step up and find some points. Hillis' yards per carry are still stuck beneath 4, so last year's force of nature couldn't pick a better (or more unlikely) time to bust out then against the rival Steelers on Thursday night. Pierre Thomas has his own team to contend with, one week after his best performance of the year, Mark Ingram returned to cloud the Saints' backfield picture.

Trends:

The Pelicans didn't exactly limp to the finish, but they didn't blow anybody's doors off either. They went 2-2, averaging 102.9 per game. In fact their ceiling has been around 110s-120s for the second half of the season. What they bring primarily is remarkable week-to-week consistency. That consistency is buoyed by Rodgers' MVP numbers, Welkers' favorite target status, and a host of high upside IDP. If the game's played in sub 120s, there's a good chance they win. If it's played above that then they'll need a stand-out game from somebody who hasn't b34st'd lately.

The Ferries docked in the playoffs on the heels of a 3 game winning streak, crossing 120 in each game. Over their last four they went 3-1 and averaged 117.5 per game during that span. They're one of the hottest teams in the league, no doubt. Victor Cruz turned in badass games for each of those contests - and he'll see good Dallas secondary on Sunday night. They also have the largest gap between their high and low score of any team entering this year's playoffs. Health and wellness will potentially drag their projections down if Andre Johnson and Kevin Smith are not fit to play.