AEtherNauts vs. BuldingDwellingThinking
It's two versus three in the marquee, but both teams enter trying to pound out a few dings - whoever can sub in production will likely see their way to the finals. AP has missed two straight weeks with a high ankle sprain, but will he return against the Saints this week? It's a dream match-up that offers a healthy workload against a poor run defense. But with the Vikings left with nothing to play for is their number 1 asset going to be a reliable fantasy play against a Saints team that will likely go up quickly and attempt to target AP's legs out of the equation? Murray's legs carried BDT to the playoff three seed, but one short, he must bow out of their championship quest. So, now the league's wheeler dealer who at one time has touched at least 4 RB1s, now finds themselves a pair of legs short. Maurice Morris could have a legit match-up against Oakland if Kevin Smith stays out of the mix.
Romo won the fantasy match-up against Eli, if not the RL one. This week he'll have easier sledding as well - facing a semi-functional Tampa 2. Eli will see a stout Washington defense that creates turnovers. Still any separation BDT can find in this position would likely come from multiple titration - whether Robinson, Austin or both will see a start is a closely guarded franchise secret.
Just to stay in the game...
BDT: Cowboys' Receivers - Robinson or Austin? Not only does BDT need the double titration to work this week, they need to pick the better of the two. Points on the bench will be a potential deathblow for a team facing a 10 point downgrade from ground injury.
Nauts: Benson or Blount? - the Nauts sport BDT's former player as a likely RB2. He's been tantalizingly even-keeled (no fumbles), but lacking the serious upside to upgrade a team's status. Against the Rams he faces arguably the league's worst line, who have precisely nothing to play for. If he can't break 100 this week, then he's benchable. Dallas' D is a tougher game for Blount on paper - but they looked decidedly uninspired against a mediocre Giants ground attack. Both sport nagging injuries and inconsistent offensive squads. Likewise the Nauts need not just a win here, but the right win.
Difference Maker
Ray Rice
BDT moved heaven and earth to have a gold-standard name in their backfield. And the last two weeks, rushing over 100 yards both times. He'll need to be not just a great RB1, but legitimately the league's top back to compensate for a potential AP presence on the Nauts lineup card. Against a mediocre San Diego ground defense, and with his team having everything to play for on the road, Rice should get the looks to control the ball in both halves. Exactly how much will likely depend on how well Baltimore's vaunted defense can create turnovers and keep the Chargers off the field. If the Ravens go +3 in the turnover department look for RR to do 130 and a score.
Calvin Johnson
Meg
atron has perhaps the highest line of fantasy credit in the game this year. Week after week, owners relied on him to bank their victories. But the last two weeks, he's fallen decidedly short. In fact, Megatron has seen the endzone only once since Halloween and failed to cross the century mark for five straight games. More teams are doubling him, and jamming the big man off the line. If he can't get back to fantasy double digits against an Oakland secondary that lacks even one even cover-man for Johnson, much less two, then his titrative drain will likely end the Nauts' brilliant run. The Aero-explorers hold a decent hedge in the Lions TE Pettigrew, but he'll need to find the endzone at least once to cover a checked 'tron. Interestingly, Johnson's production could well be tied to the belivability of Detroit's ground game, in which case Morris' production could become a double-edged sword. If the Lions keep their cool, look for a return-to-form (though not a breakout) for the WR 1 - 110 and a TD.SanFranciscoFerries vs. TakingTigerMountain
The Ferries' played to the top of their game in the wild card round and took out the Pelicans - ensuring that the dangerous Aaron Rodgers trump is out of the deck for the year. Meanwhile, the Tigers looked glad to have a bye, hovering in the 110s, with a score that wouldn't beat anybody. Its the undercard of the division round and a perfect place for an upset.
QB Contrast
Aside from both playing in the NFC South - these two teams have perhaps the most disparate QBs in the league. Cam Newton is a breakout double threat, but right now his danger stems from his athleticism not his decision-making, though his decision making has been improving week to week. Drew Brees is perhaps the best system QB in a generation. In a pass early-and-often offense he thrives on short medium and long aerials. Brees will face the Vikings midling defense in Minnesota. Although, this time of year, the indoor setting is probably at least as important as his opponent. Newton goes against a talented Houston line with lots still to play for. While Brees should be automatic for at least 17, Newton is high risk, high reward. If they stay in a firefight with the Texans, his fantasy points could pile up late. If Houston jams him up early and causes turnovers, they're exactly the kind of d-line Cam owners don't want to face. Advantage Brees, shifting to Cam if he runs more than one TD.
Clash of the Tight-En's
Release the Gronken!
Graham, Gronk - book it. Every superlative in the book has been used to describe these two. They've been equally central to their teams' successes this year. Gronk is the TD king, and seemingly gets a look every time Brady enters the red zone. Jimmy Graham has the yards, already over 1100, he's averaging nearly 14 per catch. Gronk will go against the impressive Bronco's D (the shoulders of Giants that Tebow has been riding) and you'd have to imagine he's high on their list of double team targets. Graham goes against a Minnesota squad, and he's coming off a week of back spasams and is no doubt less than 100%. Gronk is the cold fusion of the Ferries engine - his impossible level of production from this position makes him nothing short of miraculous. However, with Graham working as double-titration for the Tigers, Gronk will have to B34st to win this match-up out right. When Graham finds the endzone the Tigers are undefeated. When Gronk finds the enzone twice (as he has 6 times!) the Ferries are 5-1. Their one loss, a Rivalry week face off with TTM. Handicapping this one with Gronk by six might be a pretty good predictor of the total outcome.
Air and Ground
Who will step up this week for the Ferries. Last week Antonio Brown picked up a huge 21 in the flex spot. Victor Cruz has been the unlikely hero in week after week for this franchise. And Torrey Smith seems to have stepped tentatively into the WR2 roll, with Andre Johnson still down. Smith is picking up a whopping 18.7 yards per catch and has 6 TDs on the season. With a likely third wide-out in the flex spot - expect the Ferries to roll with their "giant-killer" high-upside 3 WR set. A rash of tough opponents (Cruz in Washington, Smith in San Diego and Brown in San Francisco) - so it will be up hill, but their high end is just as high as the Tigers.
The Tigers will field their typical 3 RB dilema again this week. Their match-ups are likewise tricky. Michael Bush should draw the start against the re-Suh'd Lions. Tebow's sidekick McGahee could look ridiculous if the Pats get up a couple scores and stack the box. Shanahan's alleged 25-touch man, Helu will find the Giants (who made Jones look like a real runner last week). Beanie's got a good match-up against the Browns if he and any other part of their offense is healthy. And the bright twilight of SJax continues in a hard one against Cincy. Realistically, TTM would love to get 30 out of whatever 3 they can draw, but last week they could have gotten anywhere from 11 to 45 depending on who they would have picked.
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