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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Playoff Picture - Week 13

Divisions:

What's settled - TTM and BDT will take the divisions and the byes attached. Their respective 7-1 division records ensure that potential division tie-breakers are covered. 

Still in play - The Tigers need a win and a BDT loss, or a +37 point differential to take over the top of the bracket.

Wildcard seeding -

HSNB -
Record - 8-4
Points - 1385.2
the Bloodz are on top of the points tiebreaker.  So a win will keep them in the third slot with a (presumably) easier opponent in the six seed.  Week 13 is no gimme though.  The Dangles are playing for a shot at the sixth seed and have run four straight +100 games. If Forte can't go, the Bloodz may be ripe for an upset.

Nauts -
Record - 8-4
 Points - 1276.6
the Aetherists have been high as a kite the last two weeks. The latest addition to their flying circus is Bryce Brown, whose coming-out party was the story of MNF.  If he gets bell-cow carries, it's a perfect replacement for L-Mac and a potential upgrade.  The Nauts are well behind the Bloodz in points but equally far ahead of the Divas.  The Nauts need a win over the Mountain and help from a Bloodz loss to creep up to the three spot.  A loss and the Nauts will inevitably tumble to five.

Phat Girlz
Record 8-4
Points - 1194.4
The Girlz are proof against falling to the six seed because they get the Stylez in week 13.  They should finish 9-4 and that's enough to keep north of whoever the incoming team is.  As a result, if the Nauts or HSNB or both get boinked this time then the Girlz could take 4th or even 3rd. 


The 6 spot -

Ferries - 
Record 7-5
Points 1214.4
SFF controls their own destiny going into week 13, win and they'll rock the playoffs for a second straight year.  Standing in their way is GrossmanSachs, also in play. Every point will count in this game.  And there's no margin for error, since the Ferries won't go with a loss. They'll hope that RGIII can build upon his 22 point performance vs. the Giants last time out.  Unless Run DMC makes a surprise appearance, the Ferries will go three wide and hope they hit paydirt early and often.   If Charlie Batch looks as ridiculous as last week, Baltimore's D should exceed their projection in the first half. If R-burger guts it out, it could be a different story.   Beanie vs. the Jets has to win the "who the fuck knows" award for the week.  He found the endzone twice last week, and the Jets are the definition of a plus match-up - but the Beanie has broken so many fantasy teams over the years there's got to be some significant juju-credits being purchased to balance things out.

Dangles
Record 6-6
Points 1357.6
The Dangles are the second highest scoring team in the league.  And they'll crush any of the 6 spot applicants in a tiebreaker.   To get there they'll need a win over the highest scoring team of the year HSNB, and a Sachs win in San Francisco.  We should know a whole lot about this one tonight since the Dangles are built around Brees and a handful of Falcons.  Currently that still includes the Atlanta D.  Running a D against a top five QB is a fine line.  Atlanta's pass defense is formidable, but they've been faltering in recent weeks.  If Greg Jennings gets a greenlight that's one to watch for the Dangles. Currently they run Cobb out there, but a half return for Jennings could mean fewer targets all around - not to mention a tough choice at WR.

g0dbank
Record 6-6
Points 1264.2
The Sachs get a shot at a bailout vs. the Ferries in week 13.  They'll need a win and a Dangles loss to sneak back into a playoff spot that was bought and paid for three weeks ago.  After a drubbing by the Giants line, A-Rodg is no doubt angry and ready to light the Vikes up. NOLA is likewise a dream matchup for Roddy White - let's just hope the weather vane is pointing at him and not Jones this week. Currently the Sachs are showing a few wire gambles including Big D's Defense and Broyles at flex. The shake-up was clearly in the cards with three straight sub-par weeks, but it remains to be seen if these are hard picks or head games.

Pelicans
Record 6-6
Points 1227.2
Longshots, but still in the race are the Grisham-ites.  PB needs a win and the Ferries and Dangles to lose and to pick up the 37.2+ more than the Sachs to grab the tiebreaker.   The Sachs have been lowballing recently (The Brief was +45.6 on them in week 12).  But it's another thing to hope they win and score 37 lower than you.  The Pelicans are rooting for twin bad days for the Ferries and the Sachs, and a record setter for themselves.   The Brief has been trending in the right direction with two straight triple digit efforts and a season high last week.  The center of their effort will be the Panthers/Chiefs game where they hope Newton/Smith/Charles can feast off of each others' poor defenses.   A huge game for the San Francisco D also could be in the cards vs. the Rams, after they just took apart the Saints to the tune of 21 points.

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