PSAS Open Forum #occupyPR

Friday, December 21, 2012

Playoff Preview - Champioship Game

From 12 teams we're down to 2.  Perhaps not coincidentally they're the two highest scoring teams from the regular season.  BDT's late season march continued right through Phat Girlz territory with a wide berth, while the Bloodz snuck by the the Mountain in an ugly Eleatic battle.  These two elite squads have yet to square off this year,so there's no maps for these territories.  Oh, and they were within a point of each other last week.

The German Philosophers are averaging 114.9 thru 14 active contests.  Wheeling and dealing aside Heidegger's boys live and die by their twin b34st backs, Foster and Rice.  While Foster has been money all year, Rice's low-ball is a bit concerning coming off his hip pointer.  Full b34st here requires both of them to go off.  The other side of BDT's monster titration is the three headed Cowboy gamble.  With the playoffs on the line Romo, Bryant and Witten will host Nawlins in Big D.  With the Boys December track record some cold feet would be understandable here, especially considering the Saints shutout of Tampa.  Romo & Co. certainly owe reparations for previous failures, but whether BDT can collect is another matter.  Dez has caught a TD pass in each of the last five games, if he takes one to the house in week 16 BDT may collect their first championship.  Garcon's a huge variable at WR2 - the chemistry he had with RG3 was undeniable, even with the downgrade he's probably still a safe play with Cousins (or a gamey RG3)  just a little less dynamic.


The Bloodz are averaging 117.3 thru 15 matches.  Peyton's conservative turn has been giving the Bloodz fits in recent weeks, but he hasn't kept them out of the title game.  The Cylcotron will likewise have two clusters of team titrations.  First the Bloodz carry the elite pieces of the Chicago offense in Marshall in Forte.  They'll get Arizona in week 16.  Badly in need of a win and minus vulture-extraordinaire Bush, expectations for the Bears duo could scarcely be higher. . If Arizona proves as porous as they have been lately HSNB could resemble a b34stiary.   The Tampa three (2WR/1K) balances the other half.  A dismal week against the Saints kept VJax, Williams and Barth under 10 combined.  No doubt, they'll bounce back vs. St. Louis in week 16, but those three need to be north of 30 to maximize platelet saturation here.  CJ?K and Hernandez (aka Gronk's squire) are probably not names that were popular candidates for championship difference makers in August.  But Hernandez is finding the endzone regularly and Tennesee's entire offense is CJ, both could be a shot in the arm.

Hedges - the Bloodz' CJ?K will go against Green Bay's D for BDT.  Johnson has been slowing, outside of a 90 yard TD run last week, he's been rather pedestrian over the  last three weeks.  If Green Bay can take him off the table, Tennessee could be a dream championship match for the Philosophers. However, if CJ can keep the Titans close enough to keep running, it could be a long day at Lambeau.

Bench - BDT has a variety of WR3 wideout help from the feast or famine (James Jones, Gordon), to possession receivers (Hartline).  As bad as Detroit's D faired last week, there's no way they make it in here.  HSNB is somewhat leaner outside the starting line-up.  Powell and Stephen's Howling are split time RBs in weak offenses.  Boldin is a feast or famine WR with a good match-up, not a terrible play, but the zero last week would make all but the boldest shy away. 

Motivation - The Cowboys are in the thick of a wildcard and division battle, against a weak New Orleans defense and powerful offense, they should have plenty of chances and reasons to take them.  Houston wants that homefield advantage and that's about the only thing keeping them running Arian out there.  Baltimore needs to clinch the division, but if they could do that without wearing Rice down they might.  Peyton is still chasing the top seed.   And the Bears are desperate to stave off elimination. If anyone, Tampa might be suspect - they got walloped in New Orleans last weekend and are well out of it - plus St. Louis has a snappy pass defense.   Out of it as well, the Jets D is a decent play against an inconsistent San Diego, but with an awful offense and toxic clubhouse, it's not hard to imagine them as a bust.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Playoff Preview - Week 15

Last year's runner up, BDT averages 115.2 ppg with their high powered attack.  2010's runner up PG is up 2 points to 103.2 after a big win over the Nauts.

The Milesian champions and top seed German Philosophers got dealt a rough downgrade with Bryant's finger injury.  There's no replacing his upside, although cold comfort might benefit Witten a bit in the double titration game.  Dez' likely absence makes it even clearer what drove this 10 win engine all season long - the run game.  Rice and Foster are  #2 and #4 fantasy running backs and BDT's title hopes start and end with them.  That being said, they're both on likely playoff teams - and their use going forward could well slacken. The Texans have their division clinched and capable back-ups. And Rice suffered a "hip pointer" in week 14. With Dez out they'll likely go to Garcon and a WR3 choice between a home run hitter in Gordon and a possession receiver in Hartline.  It's hard to see BDT gambling with Jones or Britt, but they also have significant upside and radical week-to-week splits.  David Wilson looked like a late season star on Sunday afternoon, and with Bradshaw wearing down he could get a fantastic look in the next two weeks.  Is it enough to fill out the 3 RB set? Audible alert - if Cutler doesn't go there's a non-zero chance that BDT goes with Green Bay's D against Campbell.

Monique's club is fighting for their fantasy playoff lives and they've got a majority of their offense douing the same thing. Manning, Colston, Wallace, Lynch and Graham are all in the playoff hunt, but still need victories.  It's a potentially very beneficial arrangement for the Phat Ones, since resting stars on both ends of the spectrum begins to be a factor in week 15. The Girlz carry two potential WR1s into this semi game. Both Colston and Wallace have run into downgrades along the way this year, but either is capable of putting up game changing numbers this week.  Colston in particular should be a candidate to step up - he gets the last ranked TB pass defense.  Someone is going to light it up for NOLA in week 14 - the Girlz hope Marques shows up big.  Eli is likewise scuffling but should be in with both feet as the Giants NFC East lead slips.  The Girlz have gone with the 2 TE set of late, and gotten away with it.  But is a plus match-up for Ryan Matthews enough to elevate him from the bench?  After Houston got clobbered by the Pats it's natural to be a little gun-shy, but expect Watt & Co. to come out angry and sack-y on the Colts.   Monique has made a even keeled team this year (typified by their top three draft bids at $35), and you couldn't find a more contrasting match-up in BDT's high blue chip drafting wheeler dealer season.  

-Phat Girlz took the interdivision match in week 4 - 115.2-98.4 - Romo was eaten by Bears that week  

-Counter titrations - BDT will take Watt's piece of the H-town D back.  The Girlz will collect binders full of Avril from the the Lions D.

- Scheduling - BDT has Britt and the Girlz have a couple of Jet pieces, unlikely to see time and neither team has Eagles.  If Gersham gets a flex nod that will be a Thursday, but other than that this should get settled straight up on Sunday afternoon.

  -The last two champions  look to add to the Trophy case. The Bloodz average ppg shot up over 2 points to 117.8 after their week 14 b34st. The Mountain weighs in at 110.3. 

The Tigers have to be patting themselves on the back after a bye that saved their stripes without a doubt.  The official elevation of CJ Spiller finally came in Week 14 with FJax's season ender.  Now, we'll see if the any-which-way-but-loose back can handle a full workload.  Adrian Peterson continued his superlative dominance and has a shot at 2k - he's been +20 four out of the last five weeks.  He's driving TTM's offense to a greater extent than any single player on any of the other playoff teams.  Even a minor AP hiccup here, and the Mountain could become a molehill again.  The most popular soap opera on the Mountain (Who's the QB?) has reached it's cliffhanger moment - only 9 points separate Stafford and Luck, but their alternating good and bad days have stymied the Commish like no other.  Only 9 points separate the two young QBs on the fantasy year.  Stafford has a much more talented supporting cast, more passing yards, more passing TDs, fewer ints and fumbles.  Luck's numbers are comparable if slightly less, he's more creative with his feet, and seems to find a way to win. Stafford gets the Arizona team just obliterated by Seattle and Luck gets the Houston team that just took their second loss in embarrassing fashion courtesy of the Brady bunch. Pick one and hope for the best.  Demaryius came extremely cheap for a top 5 wideout but TTM doesn't have anybody else in the same zip code.  They'll likely be dependent on the crotchety ribs of Big Ben with Brown and Miller hoping for a return to early season dominance.  

The Bloodz were true to their top Dawg status with a +140 performance in week 14.  Seattle's once in a fantasy lifetime b34st not withstanding, there were some points left on the board for the Bloodz.  Manning was conservative versus a weak opponent.  Baltimore's pass defense should present more of a challenge. Although if he hits his big play man Thomas, he might as well not throw a TD at all for the Bloodz sake.  Manning is top 5 material for sure, but the Spinners could definitely use the multiple TD version this week.  Marshall and Forte will try to work in Lambeau tundra and stay viable.  It's a plus match-up that has trap written all over it.  If Campbell takes the helm for the Bears on Sunday, the offense could be either all these two or a whole lotta nothing all around.  CJ?k's regression will be tested against the Jets, if he can't move it here, he's done, and with him the Bloodz chances?  The huge variable for the Bloodz is Hernandez, if he can put up Gronk numbers like week 13, nobody will touch them.  If anybody could stop them the 9ers could.
 -HSNB thumped the mountain 158.00 - 107.60  in week 7. It was the Bloodz high score, Demaryius' bye and the week MJD checked out on his first run from scrimmage.  It was also the the week of the Bloodz Tampa mojo with Freeman and Vjax combining for 56.  Their opponent that week, why the Saints of course...

 -Hedges - the Tigers will take Peyton's big play target Thomas off his total.  Any scores/turn-overs by Spiller will be doubly valuable for the profiting team as he faces Seattle.   The Bloodz dropped Seattle and picked up the Jets D. So, hedge averted.

-Scheduling - This one will have a MNF component with CJ?K either trying to close the gap or run up the score against the Jets.  Conversely, TTM might get an early start with Maclin on Thursday.  They'll be Sunday evening stuff too with Hernandez and the Pats D.  A pretty spread.



Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Playoff Recap - Week 14

The wildcard round got things started with some b34st 'hawk antics to push two Eleatic squads to the semis.  BDT will carry the best of the remaining projections ahead, but with Dez' finger again an Achilles heel, they will be tested by the g0dz.

Bloodz 149.6
SFF 128.0 

The Bloodz dizzying team D spun the Ferries right round, and out of the title hunt.  Seattle's vaunted (and consistently under-performing) defense finally found its cure in the given-up for dead Cards. The 'Hawks murdered Arizona to the tune of 41 points, including (cue Benny Hill music and clip montage) 3 sacks, 4 interceptions, 4 fumble recoveries (two on kickoffs) and two defensive TDs. It was a true landslide and the fantasy fallout doomed the Ferries, who on even a normal blowout day would have taken this one.  It was a day of almost for the San Francisco Treats who saw Washington's game-tying score and two point conversion go to Cousins after RG3 went down with a knee injury.   All in all the Ferries put six out of seven offense positions in double digits and set their season high for points.  Up until the end of the early games it seemed like everything was going right for SFF with Owens even finding storybook value from a Jags RB.  The Ferries actually counter titrated ten of Seattle's points back with CB  Wanger, who picked up a pair of interceptions.  On the Bloodz side the Seattle massacre covered for a few miscues.  Peyton was again mild in a conservative Thursday night victory. Meyers pulled a 0 at TE, and CJ?K's reversion to early season obscurity continued.  Boldin showed up for a second straight double digit, wasted on the bench this week. Still, Marshall was the top fantasy receiver and combined with Forte for 33.  And VJax again found a way to make noise - he's the fourth highest scoring fantasy receiver this year. He was a super-bargain at $11 in the draft.  Marshall is #1 so the Bloodz have truly found the elite air formula this year.  Hernandez showed up on MNF and made this look like a laugher, but this was one of the best playoff games in PSAS history.   Some hard luck for the San Francisco squad, but it's better to go out on your highest note than with a whimper.  (and grade 1 sprain diagnosis aside, we have hard time imagining that RG3 will be full b34st in week 15). The Bloodz move on to try and take the Mountain in match-up of the 2010 and 2011 champions.

Phat Girlz 124.2
AEthernauts 77.2

The Girlz weighed in over 120 as the Nauts lost altitude and descended out of the championship race.  Bryce  Brown, who emerged from nowhere to lead the Aeros playoff charge with two 20+ world-beating weeks, was completely contained by the Bucs D and drew a critical zero.  That kind of bum luck was the steering star for the Explorers in week 14 as Turner continued his trend of fewer and fewer snaps played. Calvin had another big receiving day, but Stafford couldn't find him the end zone.  Meanwhile Sproles and Rivers drew big numbers on the bench.  We said picking the right three backs was going to be critical here, but it's easier said than done.  The three headed Texan Shaub/Johnson/Owen needed a big number to make up 80 pts on MNF, but never got anywhere close as New England went up early and smothered the Houston offense.  Meanwhile the Girlz were in playoff shape with Eli and Wallace both returning to form with timely 20+s.   Marshawn Lynch did the honors of team b34st with 30 in the Seattle stampede.  Probably of greatest concern to the Girlz are the Saints struggles, where untimely offensive woes have left Colston and Graham out in the cold.  They survived a loss this week, but now that they're practically out of the playoff race, what kind of offense will Brees run?  Pittsburgh's D got hammered, in shocker and took a zero where they were projected for double digits. It's probably a moot point this week as PG will return to Houston vs. Indy.   As good as the Girlz were this week, they'll likely need to improve to take out the German Philosopher's in the division round.  It's been a calendar month since Jimmy Graham broke double digits.  The Phat Ones need a Saints shoot out in the worst way, is the Bucs game the answer to their prayers?

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Playoff Preview - Week 14

#4 Nauts vs.  #5 Girlz  - A stand off between immovable objects from the Eleatic 

Regular season:
AEthernauts 2-0 vs. GirlzWeek 1 - 126.8-75.4 and Week - 96.2 - 79.8 - the Girlz won five straight before the week 8 streak breaker and two straight after that.  
AEthernauts - .  The Aeros have averaged 107.8 over the 13 week regular season, buoyed by a recent updraft (3 straight games over 110).  The Nauts have looked strong with Bryce Brown dominating in relief of L-Mac.  If McCoy manages to return and cloud the Eagles backfield, it could give the Explorers a mild downgrade.  But that seems unlikely to be a problem in week 14.   With Brown, Sproles, Turner and Ridley the Nauts have a wealth of ground game, but getting the right three in there is another matter.   Turner and Ridley have become the TD hawks, while Sproles is a pass catcher in Brees' aerial offense.  The truly elite element of the Nauts is their Johnson & Johnson receiving corps.  Calvin has been catching fire lately, but the Nauts need Andre to find the endzone to extend Schaub's QB2 value.  If the Nauts roll with the Browns DEF, they'll square off against a broken KC squad - if they start to rack up the turnovers it could get out of hand quickly.

Phat Girlz - The Girlz are back to their Phat ways with a 2012 return to the playoffs after a year dieting in the consolation.  But they're still one of the lighter teams in the playoffs, averaging only 100.6 ppg.  They've been below 100 two out of the last three weeks, and come in with the second lowest points total among playoff teams.  The Girlz have been hurt by the Steelers' passing woes without R-burger, Mike Wallace has been a risky WR3.  If Big Ben is back, the Girlz could thicken up with a quickness.  With two Saints passing pieces (Graham and Colston) Monique's club needs to hope  that Brees and company pull it together against the G-men.  S-Jax and Lychm0b are both low risk bellcows with limited upside.  After three straight weeks of single digits, Eli how has two straight over 20.  He needs to keep up the attack agains the Saints. Houston's DEF has been one of the best in the league, but against the Pats on Monday, that could all come crashing down.  Will they jump ship for Pittsburgh vs. the Chargers?

#6 Ferries vs. #3 Bloodz - An inter-division trap game.

Regular Season - Bloodz 1-0 - Week 10 - 100.8-68.8 - The Ferries have won 3 straight since dropping a clunker against the Spinners in week 10, and they had a three game streak before that.   But they're a different squad since the RG3 trade.

SanFranciscoFerries - the Ferries picked up their key eighth win and head into the playoffs on the heels of a three game winning streak. They've been in triple digits every time, but have topped out at 126 this year.  They'll bring the second lowest points (101.6 ppg) scored total into the playoffs to face the top scorer.  But the match-up isn't as one sided as it sounds.  The Ferries will pin their upset hopes on RGIII eating up Baltimore's defense, which is (currently) a counter-titration for them.  The Muscle Hamster dipped below double digits in week 13, but he should have an easier time against Philly's run defense.  Beanie was practically non-existant against the Jets defense, and it's hard to see things improving against the Seahawks.  Run DMC is on track to return, which comes not a moment too soon. Because the Ferries will limp into this contest with Shorts and Johnson (?) potentially sidelined.  Crabtree and/or Smith might see time in their place(s).

HomeSpunNeckBloodz - the Bloodz rev'd over 100 for the ninth time last week.  It's a good thing, because three of their four losses have come below the triple digit line.  The Cyclotron will carry the highest points total into week 14, averaging 115.4 per contest.  So, how will the Spinners turn another high card in the playoffs?  It starts with Peyton, who picks up the Raiders, for a handy playoff match-up.  Peyton has picked up the 5th most fantasy QB points, in a spectacular comeback year.  Forte's timely return to action along with Cutler should promote general health in their Bears offense that could carry Marshall along with it.  CJ?K's single digit day should cause a little hand-wringing here, if only for the memory of how worthless he was in the early weeks.  He'll have a more generous opponent in Indy for week 14.  The Bloodz got burned by a spot play at DEF in week 13, so they'll need to go to the wire to batten down the team D.   The big question mark here is Harvin, who's missed three straight games - even if he's back can you trust him?  Probably not, which means Boldin or Williams as high risk WR3 or Ingram as a low ceiling split time RB.