PSAS Open Forum #occupyPR

Friday, December 21, 2012

Playoff Preview - Champioship Game

From 12 teams we're down to 2.  Perhaps not coincidentally they're the two highest scoring teams from the regular season.  BDT's late season march continued right through Phat Girlz territory with a wide berth, while the Bloodz snuck by the the Mountain in an ugly Eleatic battle.  These two elite squads have yet to square off this year,so there's no maps for these territories.  Oh, and they were within a point of each other last week.

The German Philosophers are averaging 114.9 thru 14 active contests.  Wheeling and dealing aside Heidegger's boys live and die by their twin b34st backs, Foster and Rice.  While Foster has been money all year, Rice's low-ball is a bit concerning coming off his hip pointer.  Full b34st here requires both of them to go off.  The other side of BDT's monster titration is the three headed Cowboy gamble.  With the playoffs on the line Romo, Bryant and Witten will host Nawlins in Big D.  With the Boys December track record some cold feet would be understandable here, especially considering the Saints shutout of Tampa.  Romo & Co. certainly owe reparations for previous failures, but whether BDT can collect is another matter.  Dez has caught a TD pass in each of the last five games, if he takes one to the house in week 16 BDT may collect their first championship.  Garcon's a huge variable at WR2 - the chemistry he had with RG3 was undeniable, even with the downgrade he's probably still a safe play with Cousins (or a gamey RG3)  just a little less dynamic.


The Bloodz are averaging 117.3 thru 15 matches.  Peyton's conservative turn has been giving the Bloodz fits in recent weeks, but he hasn't kept them out of the title game.  The Cylcotron will likewise have two clusters of team titrations.  First the Bloodz carry the elite pieces of the Chicago offense in Marshall in Forte.  They'll get Arizona in week 16.  Badly in need of a win and minus vulture-extraordinaire Bush, expectations for the Bears duo could scarcely be higher. . If Arizona proves as porous as they have been lately HSNB could resemble a b34stiary.   The Tampa three (2WR/1K) balances the other half.  A dismal week against the Saints kept VJax, Williams and Barth under 10 combined.  No doubt, they'll bounce back vs. St. Louis in week 16, but those three need to be north of 30 to maximize platelet saturation here.  CJ?K and Hernandez (aka Gronk's squire) are probably not names that were popular candidates for championship difference makers in August.  But Hernandez is finding the endzone regularly and Tennesee's entire offense is CJ, both could be a shot in the arm.

Hedges - the Bloodz' CJ?K will go against Green Bay's D for BDT.  Johnson has been slowing, outside of a 90 yard TD run last week, he's been rather pedestrian over the  last three weeks.  If Green Bay can take him off the table, Tennessee could be a dream championship match for the Philosophers. However, if CJ can keep the Titans close enough to keep running, it could be a long day at Lambeau.

Bench - BDT has a variety of WR3 wideout help from the feast or famine (James Jones, Gordon), to possession receivers (Hartline).  As bad as Detroit's D faired last week, there's no way they make it in here.  HSNB is somewhat leaner outside the starting line-up.  Powell and Stephen's Howling are split time RBs in weak offenses.  Boldin is a feast or famine WR with a good match-up, not a terrible play, but the zero last week would make all but the boldest shy away. 

Motivation - The Cowboys are in the thick of a wildcard and division battle, against a weak New Orleans defense and powerful offense, they should have plenty of chances and reasons to take them.  Houston wants that homefield advantage and that's about the only thing keeping them running Arian out there.  Baltimore needs to clinch the division, but if they could do that without wearing Rice down they might.  Peyton is still chasing the top seed.   And the Bears are desperate to stave off elimination. If anyone, Tampa might be suspect - they got walloped in New Orleans last weekend and are well out of it - plus St. Louis has a snappy pass defense.   Out of it as well, the Jets D is a decent play against an inconsistent San Diego, but with an awful offense and toxic clubhouse, it's not hard to imagine them as a bust.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Playoff Preview - Week 15

Last year's runner up, BDT averages 115.2 ppg with their high powered attack.  2010's runner up PG is up 2 points to 103.2 after a big win over the Nauts.

The Milesian champions and top seed German Philosophers got dealt a rough downgrade with Bryant's finger injury.  There's no replacing his upside, although cold comfort might benefit Witten a bit in the double titration game.  Dez' likely absence makes it even clearer what drove this 10 win engine all season long - the run game.  Rice and Foster are  #2 and #4 fantasy running backs and BDT's title hopes start and end with them.  That being said, they're both on likely playoff teams - and their use going forward could well slacken. The Texans have their division clinched and capable back-ups. And Rice suffered a "hip pointer" in week 14. With Dez out they'll likely go to Garcon and a WR3 choice between a home run hitter in Gordon and a possession receiver in Hartline.  It's hard to see BDT gambling with Jones or Britt, but they also have significant upside and radical week-to-week splits.  David Wilson looked like a late season star on Sunday afternoon, and with Bradshaw wearing down he could get a fantastic look in the next two weeks.  Is it enough to fill out the 3 RB set? Audible alert - if Cutler doesn't go there's a non-zero chance that BDT goes with Green Bay's D against Campbell.

Monique's club is fighting for their fantasy playoff lives and they've got a majority of their offense douing the same thing. Manning, Colston, Wallace, Lynch and Graham are all in the playoff hunt, but still need victories.  It's a potentially very beneficial arrangement for the Phat Ones, since resting stars on both ends of the spectrum begins to be a factor in week 15. The Girlz carry two potential WR1s into this semi game. Both Colston and Wallace have run into downgrades along the way this year, but either is capable of putting up game changing numbers this week.  Colston in particular should be a candidate to step up - he gets the last ranked TB pass defense.  Someone is going to light it up for NOLA in week 14 - the Girlz hope Marques shows up big.  Eli is likewise scuffling but should be in with both feet as the Giants NFC East lead slips.  The Girlz have gone with the 2 TE set of late, and gotten away with it.  But is a plus match-up for Ryan Matthews enough to elevate him from the bench?  After Houston got clobbered by the Pats it's natural to be a little gun-shy, but expect Watt & Co. to come out angry and sack-y on the Colts.   Monique has made a even keeled team this year (typified by their top three draft bids at $35), and you couldn't find a more contrasting match-up in BDT's high blue chip drafting wheeler dealer season.  

-Phat Girlz took the interdivision match in week 4 - 115.2-98.4 - Romo was eaten by Bears that week  

-Counter titrations - BDT will take Watt's piece of the H-town D back.  The Girlz will collect binders full of Avril from the the Lions D.

- Scheduling - BDT has Britt and the Girlz have a couple of Jet pieces, unlikely to see time and neither team has Eagles.  If Gersham gets a flex nod that will be a Thursday, but other than that this should get settled straight up on Sunday afternoon.

  -The last two champions  look to add to the Trophy case. The Bloodz average ppg shot up over 2 points to 117.8 after their week 14 b34st. The Mountain weighs in at 110.3. 

The Tigers have to be patting themselves on the back after a bye that saved their stripes without a doubt.  The official elevation of CJ Spiller finally came in Week 14 with FJax's season ender.  Now, we'll see if the any-which-way-but-loose back can handle a full workload.  Adrian Peterson continued his superlative dominance and has a shot at 2k - he's been +20 four out of the last five weeks.  He's driving TTM's offense to a greater extent than any single player on any of the other playoff teams.  Even a minor AP hiccup here, and the Mountain could become a molehill again.  The most popular soap opera on the Mountain (Who's the QB?) has reached it's cliffhanger moment - only 9 points separate Stafford and Luck, but their alternating good and bad days have stymied the Commish like no other.  Only 9 points separate the two young QBs on the fantasy year.  Stafford has a much more talented supporting cast, more passing yards, more passing TDs, fewer ints and fumbles.  Luck's numbers are comparable if slightly less, he's more creative with his feet, and seems to find a way to win. Stafford gets the Arizona team just obliterated by Seattle and Luck gets the Houston team that just took their second loss in embarrassing fashion courtesy of the Brady bunch. Pick one and hope for the best.  Demaryius came extremely cheap for a top 5 wideout but TTM doesn't have anybody else in the same zip code.  They'll likely be dependent on the crotchety ribs of Big Ben with Brown and Miller hoping for a return to early season dominance.  

The Bloodz were true to their top Dawg status with a +140 performance in week 14.  Seattle's once in a fantasy lifetime b34st not withstanding, there were some points left on the board for the Bloodz.  Manning was conservative versus a weak opponent.  Baltimore's pass defense should present more of a challenge. Although if he hits his big play man Thomas, he might as well not throw a TD at all for the Bloodz sake.  Manning is top 5 material for sure, but the Spinners could definitely use the multiple TD version this week.  Marshall and Forte will try to work in Lambeau tundra and stay viable.  It's a plus match-up that has trap written all over it.  If Campbell takes the helm for the Bears on Sunday, the offense could be either all these two or a whole lotta nothing all around.  CJ?k's regression will be tested against the Jets, if he can't move it here, he's done, and with him the Bloodz chances?  The huge variable for the Bloodz is Hernandez, if he can put up Gronk numbers like week 13, nobody will touch them.  If anybody could stop them the 9ers could.
 -HSNB thumped the mountain 158.00 - 107.60  in week 7. It was the Bloodz high score, Demaryius' bye and the week MJD checked out on his first run from scrimmage.  It was also the the week of the Bloodz Tampa mojo with Freeman and Vjax combining for 56.  Their opponent that week, why the Saints of course...

 -Hedges - the Tigers will take Peyton's big play target Thomas off his total.  Any scores/turn-overs by Spiller will be doubly valuable for the profiting team as he faces Seattle.   The Bloodz dropped Seattle and picked up the Jets D. So, hedge averted.

-Scheduling - This one will have a MNF component with CJ?K either trying to close the gap or run up the score against the Jets.  Conversely, TTM might get an early start with Maclin on Thursday.  They'll be Sunday evening stuff too with Hernandez and the Pats D.  A pretty spread.



Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Playoff Recap - Week 14

The wildcard round got things started with some b34st 'hawk antics to push two Eleatic squads to the semis.  BDT will carry the best of the remaining projections ahead, but with Dez' finger again an Achilles heel, they will be tested by the g0dz.

Bloodz 149.6
SFF 128.0 

The Bloodz dizzying team D spun the Ferries right round, and out of the title hunt.  Seattle's vaunted (and consistently under-performing) defense finally found its cure in the given-up for dead Cards. The 'Hawks murdered Arizona to the tune of 41 points, including (cue Benny Hill music and clip montage) 3 sacks, 4 interceptions, 4 fumble recoveries (two on kickoffs) and two defensive TDs. It was a true landslide and the fantasy fallout doomed the Ferries, who on even a normal blowout day would have taken this one.  It was a day of almost for the San Francisco Treats who saw Washington's game-tying score and two point conversion go to Cousins after RG3 went down with a knee injury.   All in all the Ferries put six out of seven offense positions in double digits and set their season high for points.  Up until the end of the early games it seemed like everything was going right for SFF with Owens even finding storybook value from a Jags RB.  The Ferries actually counter titrated ten of Seattle's points back with CB  Wanger, who picked up a pair of interceptions.  On the Bloodz side the Seattle massacre covered for a few miscues.  Peyton was again mild in a conservative Thursday night victory. Meyers pulled a 0 at TE, and CJ?K's reversion to early season obscurity continued.  Boldin showed up for a second straight double digit, wasted on the bench this week. Still, Marshall was the top fantasy receiver and combined with Forte for 33.  And VJax again found a way to make noise - he's the fourth highest scoring fantasy receiver this year. He was a super-bargain at $11 in the draft.  Marshall is #1 so the Bloodz have truly found the elite air formula this year.  Hernandez showed up on MNF and made this look like a laugher, but this was one of the best playoff games in PSAS history.   Some hard luck for the San Francisco squad, but it's better to go out on your highest note than with a whimper.  (and grade 1 sprain diagnosis aside, we have hard time imagining that RG3 will be full b34st in week 15). The Bloodz move on to try and take the Mountain in match-up of the 2010 and 2011 champions.

Phat Girlz 124.2
AEthernauts 77.2

The Girlz weighed in over 120 as the Nauts lost altitude and descended out of the championship race.  Bryce  Brown, who emerged from nowhere to lead the Aeros playoff charge with two 20+ world-beating weeks, was completely contained by the Bucs D and drew a critical zero.  That kind of bum luck was the steering star for the Explorers in week 14 as Turner continued his trend of fewer and fewer snaps played. Calvin had another big receiving day, but Stafford couldn't find him the end zone.  Meanwhile Sproles and Rivers drew big numbers on the bench.  We said picking the right three backs was going to be critical here, but it's easier said than done.  The three headed Texan Shaub/Johnson/Owen needed a big number to make up 80 pts on MNF, but never got anywhere close as New England went up early and smothered the Houston offense.  Meanwhile the Girlz were in playoff shape with Eli and Wallace both returning to form with timely 20+s.   Marshawn Lynch did the honors of team b34st with 30 in the Seattle stampede.  Probably of greatest concern to the Girlz are the Saints struggles, where untimely offensive woes have left Colston and Graham out in the cold.  They survived a loss this week, but now that they're practically out of the playoff race, what kind of offense will Brees run?  Pittsburgh's D got hammered, in shocker and took a zero where they were projected for double digits. It's probably a moot point this week as PG will return to Houston vs. Indy.   As good as the Girlz were this week, they'll likely need to improve to take out the German Philosopher's in the division round.  It's been a calendar month since Jimmy Graham broke double digits.  The Phat Ones need a Saints shoot out in the worst way, is the Bucs game the answer to their prayers?

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Playoff Preview - Week 14

#4 Nauts vs.  #5 Girlz  - A stand off between immovable objects from the Eleatic 

Regular season:
AEthernauts 2-0 vs. GirlzWeek 1 - 126.8-75.4 and Week - 96.2 - 79.8 - the Girlz won five straight before the week 8 streak breaker and two straight after that.  
AEthernauts - .  The Aeros have averaged 107.8 over the 13 week regular season, buoyed by a recent updraft (3 straight games over 110).  The Nauts have looked strong with Bryce Brown dominating in relief of L-Mac.  If McCoy manages to return and cloud the Eagles backfield, it could give the Explorers a mild downgrade.  But that seems unlikely to be a problem in week 14.   With Brown, Sproles, Turner and Ridley the Nauts have a wealth of ground game, but getting the right three in there is another matter.   Turner and Ridley have become the TD hawks, while Sproles is a pass catcher in Brees' aerial offense.  The truly elite element of the Nauts is their Johnson & Johnson receiving corps.  Calvin has been catching fire lately, but the Nauts need Andre to find the endzone to extend Schaub's QB2 value.  If the Nauts roll with the Browns DEF, they'll square off against a broken KC squad - if they start to rack up the turnovers it could get out of hand quickly.

Phat Girlz - The Girlz are back to their Phat ways with a 2012 return to the playoffs after a year dieting in the consolation.  But they're still one of the lighter teams in the playoffs, averaging only 100.6 ppg.  They've been below 100 two out of the last three weeks, and come in with the second lowest points total among playoff teams.  The Girlz have been hurt by the Steelers' passing woes without R-burger, Mike Wallace has been a risky WR3.  If Big Ben is back, the Girlz could thicken up with a quickness.  With two Saints passing pieces (Graham and Colston) Monique's club needs to hope  that Brees and company pull it together against the G-men.  S-Jax and Lychm0b are both low risk bellcows with limited upside.  After three straight weeks of single digits, Eli how has two straight over 20.  He needs to keep up the attack agains the Saints. Houston's DEF has been one of the best in the league, but against the Pats on Monday, that could all come crashing down.  Will they jump ship for Pittsburgh vs. the Chargers?

#6 Ferries vs. #3 Bloodz - An inter-division trap game.

Regular Season - Bloodz 1-0 - Week 10 - 100.8-68.8 - The Ferries have won 3 straight since dropping a clunker against the Spinners in week 10, and they had a three game streak before that.   But they're a different squad since the RG3 trade.

SanFranciscoFerries - the Ferries picked up their key eighth win and head into the playoffs on the heels of a three game winning streak. They've been in triple digits every time, but have topped out at 126 this year.  They'll bring the second lowest points (101.6 ppg) scored total into the playoffs to face the top scorer.  But the match-up isn't as one sided as it sounds.  The Ferries will pin their upset hopes on RGIII eating up Baltimore's defense, which is (currently) a counter-titration for them.  The Muscle Hamster dipped below double digits in week 13, but he should have an easier time against Philly's run defense.  Beanie was practically non-existant against the Jets defense, and it's hard to see things improving against the Seahawks.  Run DMC is on track to return, which comes not a moment too soon. Because the Ferries will limp into this contest with Shorts and Johnson (?) potentially sidelined.  Crabtree and/or Smith might see time in their place(s).

HomeSpunNeckBloodz - the Bloodz rev'd over 100 for the ninth time last week.  It's a good thing, because three of their four losses have come below the triple digit line.  The Cyclotron will carry the highest points total into week 14, averaging 115.4 per contest.  So, how will the Spinners turn another high card in the playoffs?  It starts with Peyton, who picks up the Raiders, for a handy playoff match-up.  Peyton has picked up the 5th most fantasy QB points, in a spectacular comeback year.  Forte's timely return to action along with Cutler should promote general health in their Bears offense that could carry Marshall along with it.  CJ?K's single digit day should cause a little hand-wringing here, if only for the memory of how worthless he was in the early weeks.  He'll have a more generous opponent in Indy for week 14.  The Bloodz got burned by a spot play at DEF in week 13, so they'll need to go to the wire to batten down the team D.   The big question mark here is Harvin, who's missed three straight games - even if he's back can you trust him?  Probably not, which means Boldin or Williams as high risk WR3 or Ingram as a low ceiling split time RB.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Playoff Picture - Week 13


What's settled - TTM and BDT will take the divisions and the byes attached. Their respective 7-1 division records ensure that potential division tie-breakers are covered. 

Still in play - The Tigers need a win and a BDT loss, or a +37 point differential to take over the top of the bracket.

Wildcard seeding -

Record - 8-4
Points - 1385.2
the Bloodz are on top of the points tiebreaker.  So a win will keep them in the third slot with a (presumably) easier opponent in the six seed.  Week 13 is no gimme though.  The Dangles are playing for a shot at the sixth seed and have run four straight +100 games. If Forte can't go, the Bloodz may be ripe for an upset.

Nauts -
Record - 8-4
 Points - 1276.6
the Aetherists have been high as a kite the last two weeks. The latest addition to their flying circus is Bryce Brown, whose coming-out party was the story of MNF.  If he gets bell-cow carries, it's a perfect replacement for L-Mac and a potential upgrade.  The Nauts are well behind the Bloodz in points but equally far ahead of the Divas.  The Nauts need a win over the Mountain and help from a Bloodz loss to creep up to the three spot.  A loss and the Nauts will inevitably tumble to five.

Phat Girlz
Record 8-4
Points - 1194.4
The Girlz are proof against falling to the six seed because they get the Stylez in week 13.  They should finish 9-4 and that's enough to keep north of whoever the incoming team is.  As a result, if the Nauts or HSNB or both get boinked this time then the Girlz could take 4th or even 3rd. 

The 6 spot -

Ferries - 
Record 7-5
Points 1214.4
SFF controls their own destiny going into week 13, win and they'll rock the playoffs for a second straight year.  Standing in their way is GrossmanSachs, also in play. Every point will count in this game.  And there's no margin for error, since the Ferries won't go with a loss. They'll hope that RGIII can build upon his 22 point performance vs. the Giants last time out.  Unless Run DMC makes a surprise appearance, the Ferries will go three wide and hope they hit paydirt early and often.   If Charlie Batch looks as ridiculous as last week, Baltimore's D should exceed their projection in the first half. If R-burger guts it out, it could be a different story.   Beanie vs. the Jets has to win the "who the fuck knows" award for the week.  He found the endzone twice last week, and the Jets are the definition of a plus match-up - but the Beanie has broken so many fantasy teams over the years there's got to be some significant juju-credits being purchased to balance things out.

Record 6-6
Points 1357.6
The Dangles are the second highest scoring team in the league.  And they'll crush any of the 6 spot applicants in a tiebreaker.   To get there they'll need a win over the highest scoring team of the year HSNB, and a Sachs win in San Francisco.  We should know a whole lot about this one tonight since the Dangles are built around Brees and a handful of Falcons.  Currently that still includes the Atlanta D.  Running a D against a top five QB is a fine line.  Atlanta's pass defense is formidable, but they've been faltering in recent weeks.  If Greg Jennings gets a greenlight that's one to watch for the Dangles. Currently they run Cobb out there, but a half return for Jennings could mean fewer targets all around - not to mention a tough choice at WR.

Record 6-6
Points 1264.2
The Sachs get a shot at a bailout vs. the Ferries in week 13.  They'll need a win and a Dangles loss to sneak back into a playoff spot that was bought and paid for three weeks ago.  After a drubbing by the Giants line, A-Rodg is no doubt angry and ready to light the Vikes up. NOLA is likewise a dream matchup for Roddy White - let's just hope the weather vane is pointing at him and not Jones this week. Currently the Sachs are showing a few wire gambles including Big D's Defense and Broyles at flex. The shake-up was clearly in the cards with three straight sub-par weeks, but it remains to be seen if these are hard picks or head games.

Record 6-6
Points 1227.2
Longshots, but still in the race are the Grisham-ites.  PB needs a win and the Ferries and Dangles to lose and to pick up the 37.2+ more than the Sachs to grab the tiebreaker.   The Sachs have been lowballing recently (The Brief was +45.6 on them in week 12).  But it's another thing to hope they win and score 37 lower than you.  The Pelicans are rooting for twin bad days for the Ferries and the Sachs, and a record setter for themselves.   The Brief has been trending in the right direction with two straight triple digit efforts and a season high last week.  The center of their effort will be the Panthers/Chiefs game where they hope Newton/Smith/Charles can feast off of each others' poor defenses.   A huge game for the San Francisco D also could be in the cards vs. the Rams, after they just took apart the Saints to the tune of 21 points.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

\/\/33k 13 P0\/\/3r R4/\/k1/\/gZ

As promised week 12 locked in five spots and both divisions, one spot still remains and four teams are in play for that.  It's a testament to the level of play that 9/12 teams are at or over .500 going into the last game of the season.  We've really beat up on each other, although only six teams will go to the dance, we've had great play across the board.  Check out the tiebreakers for divisions & wildcards , if you have any questions about the specifics.  So, far we've got four teams returning to the playoffs and one storming back (congrats Phat Girlz).  If SFF can hold on we'll be 5/1 returning, if Dangles or Grossman snag that wildcard we'll be 4/2.

1.) BldgDW3LL1NGTh1nk1ng   (last week 1)   9-3
-The German Philosophers contemplated their fifth straight victory, a Milesian division title and a wide points lead for the top seed.  Oh, and they set a new all-time PSAS points record at 167.8.  That's a lot for one week.  And there was a lot of action on BDT's squad as you would imagine.  Facing Grossman with division and bye seeding on the line, BDT brought the wood with 4 20+s - none bigger than the double titration of Romo and Bryant.  A spot start for St. Louis picked up a handy 24 and Arian continued his world-beating ways with 23.  Andre Brown checked out for the year with a broken leg, giving BDT a little downgrade on depth.  The Rams D isn't steady enough for week to week work, and the Giants made short work of the Clay-less Pack coming off their bye. So expect a wire defense upgrade going into the playoffs. 

Next week -Tusken Raiders - BDT finishes up with the Sand People as heavy favorites.  But, they'll take this one seriously or risk going into the postseason on a sour note. If Bush gets bell-cow carries for the Bears the Raiders could be triple-digit dangerous. 

2.) TakingTigerMountain (last week 2)  9-3
The Mountain picked up their freebie from the Stylez, but got in a few numbers anyway.  Two stories have to dominate the Eleatic leaders' headlines going into the playoffs.  One is the guesswork surrounding Quarterback.  TTM has shown an almost constitutional inability to pick correctly between Stafford and Luck.  Now that Calvin and Matt are making beautiful music again, is the job his to lose?  The other story is the ballad of MJDAfter his holdout he seemed off to great season, but now there's a real question of whether he'll really make it back at all for the Tigers.  With the Jags floundering and Jones-Drew thinking of his future, there can't be much incentive to push him.  Still, securing the week 14 bye, at least lets the Mountain dream that he might be back in time to play flex in their semi-round battle.  

Next week   - AEthernauts  - TTM gets the Nauts. Both squads are playoff bound, so this one is for post position.  The Tigers need to hold court and gain big time points to have a shot at the #1 seed.  The Nauts would need a win and help to pass the Bloodz and take over third.

3.) AEthernauts  (Last week - 4) -  8-4
Getting hot at the right time the Aeros picked up a second straight victory, putting their two highest scores in the last two weeks.  Just a fortnight ago the Nauts seemed like bubble candidates, but two impressive outings have them in the playoffs again.  Again, it was big air games from Johnson &  Johnson that kept the Nauts looking down on their opponents - the duo combined for 38.4.  A handful of helpful TDs covered for mediocre production elsewhere.  And Schaub was at least not Vick.  With Aldon Smith coming into his own as a sack expert, the Nauts IDP production is one of their most formidable elements. MNF update, Bryce Brown, Mr. Can't Miss from K-State.  He ate the Panther's line for breakfast and could be a huge flex upgrade if McCoy injury stretches to the fantasy playoffs. 

Next week -TakingTigerMountain- AE gets the Mountain in week 13 to finish out.  No doubt they're glad it's just for seeding, because some of their key producers have tough games lined up.  The big variable is Brown versus a dinged Dallas inside line.   For AE rise above they're going to need the Texans double-titration to light up the skies in the coming weeks. 

4.) Phat Girlz (last week  5)  8-4
-The Girlz picked up a must-win versus the slowing Cyclotron in week 12.  The Divas were far from pitch perfect, but the Bloodz were vulnerable this week.  A big bounce back game from Eli has to provide them hope that the Giants can repeat their positive December of last year and carry the Girlz to a title.  A tough match-up for the Saints kept the Phat Ones from going full b34st.  And Lynchm0b couldn't get going against a tight Dolphins run defense. Houston's D has faltered for a second straight week, but a Titans match-up should improve their prospects.

Next week -Pr1m0rdi4lLyfestylz®  - the Girlz can rest and hope for some help in seeding as a win over the Stylez will keep the pressure on.  It's a nice break for the Girlz, who have to pin their upgrade hopes on R-burger returning to give their top receiver Wallace back his WR1 ranking. 

5.) HomeSpunNeckBloodz (last week 3)   8-4
-Dropping the bolt can be a letdown, as the Bloodz proved losing their second straight.  After a beastly run through the bye weeks, the Cyclotron has slowed with injuries and tough in-division games.  The most worrisome occurance this week is Forte's ankle injury. The Bloodz will struggle to replace his production if he misses time, as benchwarmer Ingram is now a part of an increasingly crowded Saints backfield.  Cutler's return was a welcome help for Marshall's status, which at least gives them two plausible receivers.  If they can't get Harvin and Forte back for week 14.  Manning and CJ?K may have to carry them through the dangerous wildcard round. 

Next week -Cincinnati Dangles  - dropping their chance at the protective bye the Bloodz will play for their own ranking and to keep a powerful competitor from the brackets.  The Bloodz have a bunch of points so a win here should keep them in the 3 spot.

6.)  SanFranciscoFerries (last week 7)   7-5
-The Ferries won their second straight and control their destiny going into week 13.  Led by RGIII with 28, they picked up four double digits, for a good-enough effort.  Martin continues to be the big mover on the ground for the Ferries, with seven straight weeks of double digit fantasy numbers.  A surprise start by Knowshon left the Ferries holding the Hillman bag, but there wasn't quite enough on the other side of the board to force the issue. Beanie found the endzone twice on the bench, and should replace Hillman going forward, even though the Cards' offense is a bad proposition even on a good day.  Between Shorts, Smith and Crabtree, SFF has three high-risk, high-reward WRs to man the flex.

Next week -GrossmanSachs  - the Ferries get division rivals the Sachs with a win-and-you're-in scenario.  This was just how we speculated it two weeks ago, and the Ferries couldn't hope for a better shot.  Despite injuries to DJax, Willis and Murray, the Sachs are more than a match for the Ferries.  They're actually very similar teams with high-end QB play, midrange RBs, three WR sets and traditional brand name defenses.  All things being equal it could easily fall to kicking or IDP numbers here.

7.)  Cincinnati Dangles (last week 6)   6-6
-The Dangles just can't quite get free of that unlucky label.  They've got the second most points in the league, but they've lost 4 +100 campaigns. Cincinnati looked like a good bet to upset the Nauts, but they sputtered as Brees fell short of 20 and Cobb couldn't find the endzone in a tough Giants game.  Atlanta's defense has been below the mark 4/5 weeks now, and didn't do them any favors here.  Rodgers appears to be winning more touches from Turner, so there's a chance to mine flex value there. 

Next week -HomeSpunNeckBloodz  - The Dangley Ones will need a win and help from the Ferries to be playoff bound this week.  The good news is that they're the points leader by a country mile among the four competitive teams.  So, there's at least a clear path to envision.  The bad news is that they're playing the #1 points scorer this year.  Without Forte in the Bloodz line-up, the Dangles should be cautious favorites, but in a close game a counter-titration like Brees/Atlanta D could be a deal breaker.  Atlanta went for just 2 pts in NOLA three weeks ago.   

8.)  GrossmanSachs  (last week 7) 6-6
-The Sachs collapse this year has been the story of the second half.  6-3 following week 9, they go into week 12 6-6.  They've been below 100 for three consecutive weeks.  Unfortunately for them, other teams have stepped up and now they must scrap and hope for the final spot.  Rodgers has seemed human the last two times out, but it's hard to see Minnesota executing the new anti-Pack strategy.  Willis' loss is hard to compensate for and they'reDeangelo now has a starting role, even if he is a plodder, he could be good for a goal-line score. Fitzgerald's downgrade along with the Cards offensive woes, has to hurt the most.  Since their week 2 trade the g0dbank was going to be a 3 WR team and missing one of the most talented league veterans is a big gap.  If the g0dbank is going to pull off the miracle in week 13, Rodgers and the Chicago D will have to go full b34st and inspire some of the replacements.

Next week -SanFranciscoFerries   - it would be ballsy for the Sachs to hold a spot for Murray on Sunday Night hoping that the Cowboy's injured lead back could return, but it's probably too risky with the season on the line.  The Sachs need to win to knock the Ferries off post position, then they need the Dangles to lose to eliminate a potential tiebreaker loss on points.   Both of those things are possible, so as rough as it's been the last three weeks, there's still time to save the g0dbank's season.   

9.) ThePelicanBrief  (last week 9)  6-6
-As strange as it sounds, the Brief isn't yet mathematically eliminated.  Picking up some great Panther points on MNF made their road slightly more plausible.  They'll need to see the same again from Cam, with the addition of a little double titration love with Steve Smith versus a pathetic KC pass defense.  The missing piece here has to be FJax, who has gradually lost his job to Spiller over the course of the year. They're long shots, but with multiple plus match-ups, there's at least hope that the Grishamites can put up their best score of the season.

Next week -Trichotillomaniacs  The Legal Thrillers need to win in week 13 and win big.  Not only do they need the Ferries and Dangles to lose.  They need to make up 37 points on the Sachs to overcome the tiebreak.  So, they need the Sachs to win a low scorer, and go big over the Trichs to get on the right side of week 13.   Any time you're qualifying the kinds of wins and losses you need it's not good news for your probabilities.

10.) Trichotillomaniacs (last week 10) 3-9
-Playing for pride the Trichs got dropped by the Ferries in week 12.   Kaepernick again lead the Hair Pullers, and a nifty Knowshon pick up didn't make it off the bench, but should be useful next week and in the consolation.  The Trichs actually had a pretty good game, but the promised double-titration between K-nick and V-Davis never materialized, a score there and Moreno at flex might have set the Trichs on a streak to finish the season.

Next week -ThePelicanBrief  - there's a certain satisfaction to ending someone else's playoff ambitions when yours have already been snuffed. The Trichs can do just that in week 13 by taking out the Brief. They'll be minor dogs, but in the same room as the Thrillers.

T. 12.) Pr1m0rdi4lLyfestylz®  (last week 11)  1-10
-Big City Bright Lights.

Next week -Phat Girlz - the Stylez will spread holiday joy to the Girlz, giving them a chance at a higher seed going into the playoffs.

T.12.) Tusken Raiders (last week 12) 1-10
-.The Raiders were in the conversation again, but lost on MNF to a Brief double titration special.  With the Bush boys both starting they're legitimately dangerous in week 13.

Next week -BldgDW3LL1NGTh1nk1ng-  The Sand People could knock the top team out of their #1 seed with an upset.  They'll be siginificant dogs, but they've been hunting that upset all season.  This would be a dramatic time to pull it off.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

When It's More Than A Game

With their backs against the wall, GrossmanSachs needs a win this week against the post-Socratic philosophers to stay in playoff contention. Many have doubted the G0dbank after they put up 55% of their projection last week and suffered a devastating loss. One-Armed Willis is now also One-Legged Willis, and you're just not gonna get a lot of fantasy production out of a guy with two total limbs. Inquiring minds want to know why McGahee remains on the roster. Most speculate it has something to do with #keeperz, though the G0dbank is publicly against #rosterlaziness. Sal Palantonio speculates that GrossmanSachs is keeping as many assets as possible so when they revolt against keepers, they can say it isn't because they were unprepared. GrossmanSachs said they just couldn't cut Willy, and need his presence in the locker room, now more than ever.

It was quite a scene at the end of the bankerz walkthrough Wednesday night. Their fiery coach has had a busy year, and was even speculated to be interested in coaching the new expansion franchise in Barclona, Los Banqueros Banditos. When the coach ended practice, he gathered the whole team (Peyton Hillis was even invited) and gave them an emotional "Win one for the Bankerz" speech. It was all the more powerful as the coach himself was in dire condition, after suffering a debilitating facial injury during routine sensory augmentation surgery. His useless biomass rejected the nanotechnology, and his face became the battleground for an all out #technorganic war.

With the season on the line, the G0dbank's coach was in full-blown #FaceB34STmode.
When the coach was finished, there wasn't a dry eye in the room. Danny Woodhead eventually broke the silence, and spoke for everybody when he said, "This one's for you, Coach. But, no promises, okay?" Moving stuff.

Stock Market week 12

We're at 513 total liquid (42.5%), adjusted for preterite that's 288 or roughly 29% of our starting total.  So things are getting down to the nitty gritty.  Two teams (GS and PB) have bid themselves out of PRN.  And two teams in the top six (CD and HSNB) have more than twice the next playoff contender, making them the upper crust of the playoff stretch money game.  If there's someone worth getting, it's now safe to say that those two teams could simply buy them, and that a fair part of their game should be a protect defense against their prospective opponents, this week and down the line.

1-3  - Blue Chip
4-6  - Red Chip
7-9 - Penny Stock
10-12 - Junk Bonds

                    Blue Chip      Red Chip       Penny Stock        Junk Bond

Blue Chip            5                 4                      3                        2

Red Chip            10               5                       4                        3

Penny Stock        15                10                   5                        4

Junk Bond          20                15                   10                        5

TTM [2] vs. PL [20]

PB [4] vs. TR [10]

CD [5] vs. AE [5]

SFF [4] vs Trich [10]

PG [10] vs. HSNB [4]

BDT [3] vs. GS [15]