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Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Power Rankings Week 11



Just as too many cooks will spoil the broth, too many bye contenders will spoil the wildcard race. Rather than the traditional  middle "hump", we have a middle valley, with lots of high and low. The ironic result is that nobody has actually clinched a playoff spot or been technically eliminated. But don't let that fool you. The top five are very likely going and the bottom five are significantly longer odds than either the two 5-5 teams.  So we've essentially broken down into three races.  A five way race for two bye spots. A free for all blood sport over the sixth playoff spot. And a moral victory points race.




1 (T.1) Aethernauts - (8-2) - The Aerial explorers cruised to a Monday Night victory the top spot (by winning percentage) with their third straight win.  A single huge pass play to Matavius Bryant might have saved the Nauts in week 11, but with Murray and Sanders still clicking they're every bit high end dangerous. Gordon looks more and more like the little something extra this offense could use in a playoff run.   Remaining Schedule - Polk, Old Future and TigerMountain. The Nauts face two sub .500 teams and enter week 11 third by points. A week 13 Titan Clash with the Tigers might well decide a bye.  Playoff bye forecast - Sunny with a chance of week 13 thunderstorm.

2.  (T. 1)  Phat Girlz - (7-3) - The Girlz dropped their third straight and paid for a big wire gamble.  It's not often that the highest paid player in an auction draft gets a chance on the wire as well, but that's precisely the unlikely kind of season AP is having. Dropping three straight, Monique's squad has surrendered the certainty of a bye position but not pole position. The Girlz faced massive bye clusters in the last few weeks, with the core four back on the field at the same time - expectations will be high in week 11.  Remaining Schedule - Trichs, Dijon, Pelican.  The Girlz face two sub .500 teams  and lead the league in points.  Playoff bye forecast - Sunny

3. (3) TakingTigerMountain  (7-3) - The Tigers held serve narrowly defeating a playoff worthy Ferries team for the second time this season. Missing Edleman and Vereen the Tigers play was a bit off, including a first drastic lowball of the year for Antonio Brown. With Hillman sustaining an injury and the Saints backfield bound to get a bit more crowded for Ingram, the Tigers could be in for a downgrade via their run attack. Remaining schedule - Spinners, Shockers, Nauts.  Facing one .500 team, one sub .500 and a playoff bound titan, the Tigers get a little of everything. Playoff bye forecast - week 13 thunderstorm.

4. (4)  Dijonaise All Stars (7-3)   - Team Yellow kept it going good racking up 140+ courtesy of a  massive first half from A-Rodg, and collecting all the TDs in the ATL/TB game.  This was Arian's bye week, so a signal win without a team captain is a clarion call to the rest of the contenders.  A dinged-up Lamar Miller could prove a downgrade in the stretch, but Philly's D/ST put up another crazy crooked number. If they keep putting turnovers in the endzone, they could be a serious difference maker.   Remaining Schedule - Pelican, Girlz, Ferries.  The Mustardians get low, high and middle in their quest for a bye spot.  Winning out is probably required but they do have an avenue by beating the Girlz and letting the Nauts and Tigers game decide another spot.  Playoff bye forecast - Foggy. 

5 (5) BuildingDwellingThinking  (7-3) - The German Philosophers racked up a big win with the Sanchize at the helm (undercard to the win was an expected make-up with Romo, who sat the bench with 23). A Hillman injury could come just in time for the returning Ball, and for BDT's beleaguered run game, with plodders Ivory and Morris endzone dependent and the Buffalo backfield gamble appearing to have given way to the unlikely injury-proof legs of F-Jax.  It's still a Cowboys story, so the best indicator of BDT's future will be how Romo comes out of the bye week. Remaining Schedule - Ferries, Bloodz, Shock.  Two middle-brow and a low boy for the Deep Thinkers. BDT will enter week 11 sixth by points, without any games against their bye competitors, they'll have to win out and hope for the best. Playoff bye forecast - Below the Radar.  Wild Card / Consolation cusp - above the cusp, but not safe.  BDT's middling points,  could technically cost them, but it would probably require the Bloodz to beat their score by an average of 30 points per game remaining. 

6. (6)  SanFranciscoFerries (5-5)-  The Ferries lost a squeaker to the Mountain and stay bobbing in the wildcard shallows. A big no show for Terrance Williams undercut what was otherwise a solid offensive performance in week 10. The Wilson/Stafford QB controversy continues, although SFF picked correct last week, but only by virtue of 100+ rushing yards for Wilson.  Beckham's emergence as the Giants top WR is a potential nice upgrade for the Boatmen, the G-men will be playing behind a lot for the rest of the year. Remaining schedule - BDT, Trichs, Dijon. Two top tier and one upsetter the Ferries probably need two of three, they're slightly above average in scoring but could be vulnerable at 6-7.  Wildcard miracle karma - do good works.  The Ferries probably have the toughest remaining schedule, but a couple of wins will take them home. 

7. (8)  Homespun Neckbloodz (5-5) - The Spinners got up off  the ground and hooked up an IV to their season in week 10. Following the demolition of their starting QB, the Bloodz found something from Oakland's Carr. Lowballs from the Old School receiver corps, got covered by a nice day from Marshall and Arizona's D/ST.  With an injury to Marshall's ankle in the blowout SNF game, the Bloodz need Nio-Gio to return immediately to adequately fill a flex.   Remaining Schedule - TTM, BDT, Trichs.  Did I say the Ferries schedule was the toughest? this is more of the same. Points poor, the Bloodz need to be one better than the Ferries.  Wildcard miracle karma - take the high road. The Cyclotron needs wins to power a playoff run, separation from the Ferries is the only path.  


7. (9)  Trichs  (3-7) - Another pullin' MNF for the Shogun, as some D/ST scoring vultured away touches needed for a Maclin/McCoy fueled comeback. Palmer's contract extension ACL jinx cut the Trichs off at the knees in this one.  It's been that kind of season for the Commish, where a marginal lowball gets cherry picked by big scoring by their opponent.  They're #2 in points against, and by the eye-test they've gotten everybody's best licks.   Remaining schedule - Phat Girlz, Ferries, Bloodz. Through a scheduling miracle the Ferries are set up to do the most damage to teams they're chasing. Wildcard miracle karma - fight to the last man. The Hair-Pullers start the last third of the season with a grudge match against PG.  Their games will likely have a big impact on both the bye distribution and the six spot.  In order to take it for themselves, they'll need to win out and hope that BDT sweeps the other WC contenders. 


9.  (7) Old Future (3-7)  - The Future lost a winnable game against the Bloodz and significantly hobbled their chances at the Six Spot  best. Manning continues to dominate, and close in on QB1 in the points rankings, but without the Buffalo duo OF is too dependent on WR points.  A bye for T-Rich was too much to overcome here. Remaining schedule - Shock, Nauts, Panthers. Two fellow cellar dwellers and a Star Lord. If the Future could run the table they're in the conversation. Playoff miracle karma - mustard seed. OF has a chance to rack up two wins against weaker squads, if they could pull of a huge upset of the Nauts it would reshape both races. 

10. (11)  Pelican Brief (3-7) The Grishamites kept their own hopes alive, pulling the Trichs back into the mire.  A previously undiscovered level of B345t mode for Lynch was the margin of victory. With Brady back next week, and Lynch coming off his best game in a year, PB is not going quietly.   Remaining Schedule - Dijon, Polk, PG. Like the other 3-7 teams, the Pelicans probably need a sweep. Playoff miracle karma - deus ex machina. The Brief rosters some of the most elite recognizable names in the NFL, early in the season it didn't gel, if it does now, they could become a force in the final third. 


11. (10) Shock_Pix  (3-7) - The Shock's chance was two weeks ago at 3-5 to return to playoff relevance. The locker room mood now is somber and the attitude seems downtrodden. Even though it technically was the right decision (as the Bengals waltzed into a blowout loss), Hill sitting the bench looks like coasting. Cutler's dismantling took away their last legitimate chance to Shock the World in week 10.  Remaining Schedule - OF, TTM, BDT.  A cellar dweller and two high flyers, the Shockers could still be midrange spoilers. Playoff miracle karma - grace of god. From early season  low-scoring the Pixies are last by points and would need to win out and have every other WC contender falter. 

12. (T. 11)  Polk High Panthers (2-8) - The Bundys took another one sitting down - posted on the Toyata infamy ad as a 53 point defeat to the Mustardians. Megatron's return was the good news of the day, with over 100 yards and a TD, he'll put a few teeth back in the Panther's bite down the stretch. IF he and Green and Charles manage to fire during the same week, we'll get a glimpse at the team's intended structure.  Remaining schedule - Nauts, Brief, Future. As the recap mentioned no team is eliminated, but with eight losses it's entirely out of Polk's hands.  Playoff miracle karma - infinite universes. The Bundys are 10th by points and a game down on the outsider WC hopefuls. Even with a tie at 5-8 they'll need 

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