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Friday, December 16, 2011

The Fantasy Association Presents . . .

The PRIMORDIALSHIP






Beginning play in 2012.


More details to follow the conclusion of the 2011 season . . .

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Playoff Preview: Heidigger on Tatooine


If you strike me down I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine. A narrow loss to extinct franchise Skins All the Way kept the Star Wars franchise out of the playoffs in 2010. A dominant run through the consolation tournament gave them the win and the top draft pick. Run DMC, CJ2k and Brady have given the Raiders a force to be reckoned with, fifth in points and a playoff 6 seed this year.

Lone Star -
The Cowboys are the heart and soul of BDT. And deep in the heart of Texas has been a bright titration in the second half, carrying the Heidiggerians to four straight wins to end the season and a #3 seed. With Romo, Austin, Robinson & Murray (to say nothing of Sack King Ware) in their stables, the BDT will depend on an above average Sunday Night match-up with desperate division rivals the Giants. The G-men were heavily overmatched the last two weeks against New Orleans and Green Bay, but the Cowboys are not as deadly an offensive opponent. As Romo goes, so goeth the Boys - and hence BDT. It's a big job for the invisible fantasy O-line to stop the powerful Giants pass rush. With superstar keeper Austin returning he's seemingly a must-start, but can he provide the stability that Laurent Robinson has produced. Or (gasp!) could BDT gamble on a quad-titration (QB, RB, WR1, WR2)? Regardless of how heavy it tilts, BDT's season rests in Jerry Jones' house on Sunday night. If poetically, man dwells then the origin of this season's art is it's unveiling (ἀλήθεια).

Revenge of the Sith -
The Lucas-ites three-pronged keeper is likely to still be simply a double edged light sabre in Week 14. But that's plenty scary for BDT. The better part of why is the timely resurgence of CJ2k. Two weeks of return-to-form numbers have Johnson poised to take the Raiders deep into the playoffs. And a match-up against New Orleans could give last year's superstar plenty of room to run. Run DMC's replacements Marshawn Lynch and Sproles are no slouches either and Lynch is facing a cake-walk match-up against the Rams. Brady is still Brady, but a Skins match-up will tell the tale of the Raiders' titration. Brady needs to go off big time, and do something he hasn't done in a long time - hit Hernandez for a TD for the Tusken FC to truly b34st.


Trends:

BDT won it's last four games in fine style - scoring an impeccable 128.3 ppg. Their hot hand led them to finish as the league's top scorer. To keep that score near that 130ish ceiling they'll need the game expected of RB1 Ray Rice playing a dream match-up with Indy. He picked up 27 last week against a similarly sad sack Browns squad. The exit of Fred Davis hurts this squad no little bit, he had become a key piece in a position where most team's can't expect consistent production. BDT has built the best team "on paper" in the league, by constructing a team of all "good" players. They have a 1 in nearly every position, but in no position do they have the league #1. It's put them on the track to excellence so far and it should give them better than odds-on chance to win this game too.

The Raiders finished the final four 3-1 with a strong flourish. Dented by a tough bye in week 11 their average over that span was 110 PPG. But their ceiling is around 130. They're the classic high-upside franchise. And with Brady and Johnson working at capacity there's no team in the league that shouldn't fear them. There's clearly big talent here, the question is the production of 2s like Sproles, Marshall or Hernandez (or roll-of-the-dice like Moore). If those guys are meeting their projections then the Tuskens will be right there at the finish of this one.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Playoff Preview - Bay Area Bash


The Brief draws the #4 seed after their MNF defeat in the Game of the Century, which sets up the Bay Area Bash. This is a rematch of Week 9, which the Brief took by a slim 6 point margin.

What to expect:

QB Explosions (& Cross Titrations)
Aaron Rodgers draws a cherry of match-up at home against the Raiders secondary, while Cam will see the desperate Falcons in Charlotte. There's not much chance of the Raiders suddenly stepping up and finding a winning defensive strategy against the Pack's many headed monster. But there is some chance that Atlanta may at least attempt to limit Cam's groundwork. Cam got slaughtered against Atlanta in October, throwing three picks and netting his lowest QBR of the year. The Brief can bring Carolina's time-share RB into the mix (presuming Gerhart doesn't draw another start). Stewart picked up 48 and a TD against the Falcons last time, so the Firm will hope for a repeat of that result. The Ferries will bring the Green Bay D/ST to bear, and without Run DMC, the Raiders could be in for a singularly pathetic day. It seems impossible that even a few pick sixes by his own D could keep Rodgers from his weekly 22, but if nothing else, it should keep him away from 30.

Patriot Day
Wes Welker takes his injury-waiting-to-happen to Fedex Field in D.C. against a tough Skins coverage. He's the center of the Pelicans' air-game and picking up 10+ is crucial to victory here. In addition the Grisham-ites can bring the Pats' D/ST against a Washington squad that has surrendered the 3rd most fantasy points to the position. With Helu in the backfield the Skins haven't looked quite as hapless lately - Fred Davis' suspension will hurt, but this could be a low-ball if Brady takes a big lead and they give back a few garbage TDs, New England doesn't have the pass rush to make significant D/ST points for itself. The Ferries bring the other freakish piece of the New England offense - the GRONK. With 8 TDs in the last five games, he's a threat to suck the air out of the Welker titration balloon. And he's every bit as vital to the Ferries' chances. San Francisco can also field RB2 Green-Ellis, who has found paydirt for two straight weeks. He'll need to do the same to be a factor. With the Space Ghost at kicker, they'll hope for the usual 4 PATs and a FG - fwiw, the Skins have given up the most points to kickers.

Sleeper Must Awaken:

The last two weeks Michael Turner has turned in sub-par performances against tough defenses. If the Pelicans are going to dominate this week they need their bell-cow leading the others to pasture. Carolina is surrendering the most fantasy points to RBs, if he can't do it this week then the rumors of his Turner Overdrives' late year low-gear problems could be fatal.

If the Ferries want to win they'll need to beat the Pelicans on the ground. If Kevin Smith misses this week, then they'll need Pierre Thomas or Hillis (hip) to step up and find some points. Hillis' yards per carry are still stuck beneath 4, so last year's force of nature couldn't pick a better (or more unlikely) time to bust out then against the rival Steelers on Thursday night. Pierre Thomas has his own team to contend with, one week after his best performance of the year, Mark Ingram returned to cloud the Saints' backfield picture.

Trends:

The Pelicans didn't exactly limp to the finish, but they didn't blow anybody's doors off either. They went 2-2, averaging 102.9 per game. In fact their ceiling has been around 110s-120s for the second half of the season. What they bring primarily is remarkable week-to-week consistency. That consistency is buoyed by Rodgers' MVP numbers, Welkers' favorite target status, and a host of high upside IDP. If the game's played in sub 120s, there's a good chance they win. If it's played above that then they'll need a stand-out game from somebody who hasn't b34st'd lately.

The Ferries docked in the playoffs on the heels of a 3 game winning streak, crossing 120 in each game. Over their last four they went 3-1 and averaged 117.5 per game during that span. They're one of the hottest teams in the league, no doubt. Victor Cruz turned in badass games for each of those contests - and he'll see good Dallas secondary on Sunday night. They also have the largest gap between their high and low score of any team entering this year's playoffs. Health and wellness will potentially drag their projections down if Andre Johnson and Kevin Smith are not fit to play.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Playoff Percentages: Odds and Sods

As the season winds down and the playoff bloodlust rises among those honorably chosen in battle, let us speculate on the relative chances of the competitors to achieve true fantasy glory. These percentages work on the presumption that everything stays the same, although we acknowledge that there are three scenarios which could almost entirely shuffle the brackets:

1. A Pelican victory in Week 13 would give them the #1 spot and knock TTM to #3
2. The Ferries 5 point lead over the Raiders, could evaporate and switch the teams' 5 and 6 seeds respectively.
3. An upset by the Dangles over BDT could knock them out of the 4 seed to 5 or 6.


AEthernauts - last year's upstart darling has become this year's favorite, running off nine straight wins after dropping their first two. They were picked first in the preseason PRs (and for a reason) and they've showed their incredible balance in draft strategy. They've eclipsed triple digits in 75% of their contests and top out at 142. That starts with their keepers Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, clearly the best receiver in the league, and Adrian "All Day" Peterson. Going into the playoffs the Nauts will look for Peterson to get healthy, and the bye gives them precious time there. By week 15 AP should be ready to rock against a terrible New Orleans run defense. Filling out their ground game are Blount and Benson, both solid RB2s. Dwawyne Bowe is a WR2 this year, but if Orton can get up to speed in KC his upside should show through. Gambles are at QB and Flex with fantasy quagmire Eli Manning having a great season out of his brother's shadow, but his end of season schedule is brutal. At Flex Jordy Nelson plays thePackers roulette wheel. When those two pan out the Nauts are truly l33t, when they fall flat the Nauts will find the AEther high and dry.

Outlook: 3.5/5 Daniels - Calm Before the Storm - The Nauts are steady sailing and they've got the #2 bye . They'll await the winner of the #3 vs. #6 in Week 15. Presuming AP is healthy by then, they should only have minor wire work to do.

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Tusken Raiders - Last year's consolation winner is a powerhouse again this year. Breaking 100 59% of the time, they have significant upside with a ceiling of 151. The consolation victory allowed the Lucas Arts franchise to keep three of their players. And though Run DMC's absence has significantly dinged their full potential, there's hope that he may be back in time for the 2nd round of the playoffs if not the first. Until then, the Raiders' hopes will be pinned primarily on QB Tom Brady and a resurgent CJ2k. Although, with Lynch M0B and Darren Sproles they're not hurting for depth in the run/flex department. Aerial attacks are a different story led by WR1 in a terrible offense Brandon Marshal, WR3 Steve Breaston and double titration TE Hernandez, who has been merely average as the Gronk has taken over fantasy land. The Tuskens' fondest hope has to be that CJ2k finishes out the year in high gear - he has plus match-ups the first two weeks of the playoffs and tough ones the last two.

Outlook: 2.5/5 Daniels. - Cute, But Needs a Change -
The Tuskens are a power house for sure, but they've been erratic this season, allowing the AEthernauts to run away and hide in the Milesian. Their fate in the first round will probably depend on their making the right picks among their talented RBs. Long-term, their IDP need an upgrade to maximize b34st-m0d3.

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San Francisco Ferries - The Boatmen are clearly the scrappiest team in the mix. Dropping a top 5 QB keeper before the season didn't stop them. They went right out and picked up the likely offensive ROY on the week 1 wire. Topping triple digits 66% of the time, they topped out at 158 during the Cam-dy man's early season dominance. In order to compete they need their remaining keeper and WR1 Andre Johnson at full health in the worst way. He's probably in for a downgrade with Schaub gone, but his talent makes him impossible to sit. Cruz's evolution toward a WR2 with serious upside has floated the Ferries for several games now. On the ground, the Ferries still have their sea legs with time-share Pierre Thomas & Green-Ellis taking the lead and the interminable Hillis/Smith riding the pine with injury uncertainty. Gronk's fantasy b34st covers for some mediocrity, if it shows up. If either of those backs can get/stay healthy, then the Boatmen could be in for a serious Flex upgrade.

Outlook: 2/5 Daniels - Smiling, But Smells like Gas -
The Ferries are the clear outsiders after playing their way in. But they're in no way outclassed by their opponents. They play a gambling 3 DB IDP strategy anchored by added-value punt return king Patrick Peterson. A health upgrade would be a serious boost, but game to game they'll look to Newton's dual threat to keep them on par with the other l33t QBs.






BuildingDwellingThinking - The Heidigerrians are the wheeler-dealers of this season, and sport the team that least resembles the one they drafted. Gone are Benson, Turner (keeper), Stafford & Lloyd. Arrived are Rice, Wallace, Harvin & Murray/Robinson (wire). They've broken 100 83% of the time (that's only two misses and both in the 90s!) and topped out at 167. The core of their team is Cowboys - and riding Romo's recent improvement, Robinson's reliability and Murray's ROY run, they've won three straight and their place in the playoffs. If Wallace and Rice start dominating, they'll be legitimately the highest ceiling in the league. BDT is carrying three scary D/ST and a well-rounded machine at IDP. If there's one weakness, it has to be Romo - he looks close to QB1 now, but we've seen that change in the final games before. If Tony starts to tank he could drag the entire Cowboy's triple titration down with him.

Outlook: 4/5 Daniels - Boob in Mouth -
There are not many weaknesses to BDT's attack running into the playoffs. On paper it's hard to see them exiting in the first round, and if they get by that they're an even shot for the title game. Only the luck of the tie keeps them out of a bye, so if they lose in week 14 then the King will truly have his revenge.





The Pelican Brief - Grisham's warriors have played a remarkable season, and check into the playoffs for the third straight year. PB has broken triple digits 100%, every week! topping out at 162. That's consistency that's unmatched in the league. 41% of those 100+ however are less than 110, so take that for what you will. The secret to their success is the Rodgers/Welker axis - the former has broken 20 points every week, and the latter has failed to break 10 only four times all season, the same number of times he's broken 20. On the ground they'll pin their hopes on Turner overdrive being able to keep his numbers up in the late season. RB2s Stewart and Stark will attempt to fill out the rest of the ground game. IDP talent and week to week fantasy acumen have kept PB a winner, but talent depth puts all the pressure on the big names in this offense.

Outlook: (with a loss in Week 13) 3.5/5 Daniels - Straining to Poop -
A loss against their rival TTM will send the Brief to the trap game against the Raiders. The Brief put up 115 and lost to the Tusken club in week 1. With Rodgers against a tough Oakland front and Welker in Washington, it's clearly a week the Brief would love to avoid. Still they'd be favorites...
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Outlook: (with a victory in Week 13) 4/5 Daniels - Swaddled & Sleeping -
A victory against the Mountain would propel the Brief to the #1 seed and the inside track to the 2011 championship. Week 15 would find Rodgers on a much more felicitous match-up with KC, though Welker will likely draw Champ Bailey in Denver. Still keeping out of the trap game will allow PB one more game to add wire talent, and with teams eliminated every week, their lack of PRN will be less of a hindrance.






TakingTigerMountain - The league's hot starter at 4-0 stumbled midseason but ran another four game streak and still has a chance to surmount the regular season peak. The Tigers broke 100 75% of the time, currently lead the league in scoring and topped out at 160 just last week. The Tigers are powered by the Brees/Graham circuit. In games where Graham catches a TD the Tigers are 5-1. The Tigers also rely on a heavy Ravens D Titration, carrying them and two IDP. Beyond those the Tigers have two unreliable WR1 and 5 RB2s who have already over-performed expectations. When/If Run DMC gets back on the field, the Tigers will likely be in for a signifcant downgrade on the ground, since free wire pick-up Bush has been a rock the second half of the season. Mostly the Tigers are all questions - can cow-bell backs like Jackson/Wells finish strong/healthy? could wild card W1ll1s be a playoff starter in Denver's run-option? can unlikely heroes like Bush/Helu play a part?

Outlook (with a loss in week 13) 3/5 Daniels - Indeterminate Baby Angst -
A loss against rival Pelican will send the Mountain into fantasy purgatory - the likely trap game against Tusken FC. Week 14 is the hardest remaining for the Saints titration when they travel to Tennessee's stout secondary. An additional nightmare scenario could put Run DMC in the Raider's backfield at Bush's expense, a 30 point swing. Even if Tuskens aren't the opponent, it's a game best avoided.




Outlook (with a win in week 13) 3.5/5 Daniels - Hiccups -
A win against their Eleatic rivals would mean excellent execution for the Tigers, a season well played. But it's not significantly less dangerous for their championship hopes. The Saints will end the season with plus division match-ups at home against the Falcons and Panthers. But huge question marks remain with the run game and receivers. TTM has so many moving parts - if everything is clicking they're going to hang with any team across the board, but the signs are already there that their superior regular season titration may have backed them into a playoff corner.
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PSAS Inching Closer Towards New League?

Reports of the birth of a new league, son of TTM’s PSAS, have come as a shock to most of the All-Starz, and generally disregarded as more of a fleeting fantasy rather than a reality. However, recent events seem to suggest that a relegation league may in fact be on the horizon.








For starters, League titans, the Aethernauts and Grossman Sachs, have expressed rabid support for the nascent league’s start-up efforts, with Sachs even assuring the PSAS that minimum franchise requirements would be met with ease. Such efforts would be necessary to ensure the viability of any league, much less one derided as a ‘chump league’, given its stated obeisance to its father, the PSAS. Nevertheless, the mission of the new start-up is so rife with conceptual clarity, so imbued in the primordial spirit, so rich in abendlandisher Bewusstsein, that the baby league appears to be willing itself into existence by virtue of its willing its own will. And therein lies its undeniable draw: the baby must be born because it cannot not be born.




F.ULL S.PECTRUM T.ITRATION, FTW

When asked directly whether they would support a shape-shifting PSAS, Vixkennel issued a statement: "Just as iron sharpens iron, so man sharpens man". It was an inspirational message. Vixkennel appears ready to run through the brickwall on the way to redemption in the new league. The much-maligned franchise, subject to ridicule and curious contempt, is surely condemned to the new league if it does, in fact, enter the world as a healthy living and breathing entity. Relegation should be a good opportunity for the kennel to reclaim its mojo, and might even be a playground for some of the kennel’s controversial initiatives to come to pass.




As of press time, the other certain-to-be-relegated-team-if-it-happens Phat Girlz have not been reached for comment. The Girlz’ disillusionment with the commish’s handling of the draft and scoring inflation, not to mention year-long apathy, might be reasons to accept their fate gracefully, but the team’s ambitions for next year are unknown.




A third team also must be ready to meet its maker, not two as was first erroneously reported. Unless Tebow works a last second miracle, it looks like d_k will also be exiting, and the undressing from first-to-worst will be complete. The embarrassment and humiliation shared by these three teams is palpable, but hopefully they will approach their sojourn like the first American settlers did at Jamestown.




The new league will also affect the PSAS leadership structure. It may no longer be possible for the two-team Longhorn Network to dominate as they once had. While the commissioner and Reserve Chairman posts may remain the same, a new leadership position would have to be created for the Fantasy Association. The FA oversees the prestigious FA Cup as well as all interactions between the two leagues. It could also oversee other competitions, such as one modeled after the Carling Cup. This, however, is purely speculative, but surely would seem like a waste for the PSAS to ignore Grossman’s overtures.