Week 13: Draft Analysis and Picks

Week 13: Draft Analysis and Picks

The final week of the season is upon us and the playoff field is rounding into shape (as Petronius Arbiter has helpfully detailed here). As we descend into winter, we have nearly an entire season's worth of data that we can use to take stock of this year's fantasy draft. To that end, the Nauts analytics division has scraped the Yahoo site for data on the top performing RBs, WRs, TEs, and QBs of 2017 and their corresponding draft prices, if any, to see what the best values were in the draft.

To get at value, I calculated two measures for each player based on their total fantasy points for the season and their draft prices (if a player wasn't drafted, they were assigned a draft price of $0.99--punting on issues of waiver wire strategy).

The first measure, which I'll call premium-adjusted fantasy points, involved the following steps:

1) Define a premium as any amount over $1 paid for a player.

2) Calculate the maximum premium paid for any player (in this case, $75-$1 = $74 for Hanging with Hooper's draft of Le'Veon Bell).

3) For each player, calculate their premium, then calculate the proportion of the maximum premium that was paid. For example, the Trichs took Todd Gurley for $46, so here the $45 premium was $45/$74 = 0.61 of the maximum possible premium.

4) Add the proportion of the maximum premium to 1, then divide that player's total fantasy points by the resulting value. So for Todd Gurley, this comes out to 196/1.61 = 122, which is his premium adjusted fantasy point value for the season.

The idea here: premium adjusted fantasy points factor in the opportunity cost of paying big money for a player, by reducing his fantasy points in proportion to the premium he fetched in the draft.

Distribution of premium-adjusted fantasy points by position

Now, let's look at the distributions of premium-adjusted fantasy points by position for the top W/R/Ts and QBs currently owned in PSAS (technically, the top 90 W/R/Ts and top 19 QBs by raw total fantasy points). The below graph shows the distribution of premium-adjusted FP by position; the dark line in the middle of each box represents the median premium-adjusted FP for that position, the box itself represents the middle 50% of values, and the whiskers represent values outside the middle 50% that fall into a relatively normal range. Isolated points represent outliers for that position--for example, the point right under the 200 point line for the RB category represents Alvin Kamara, the runaway best value in the draft among RBs at 167 premium-adjusted FP (170 total FP, $2 draft price).

Quick patterns of note: QBs have been better values by a whopping margin--but of course, most of that is due to the limited number of slots, and thus looser market for that position. Meanwhile, TEs this season have been a low value, low variance proposition this season, with the best value players (Zach Ertz and Jimmy Graham) barely cracking the 75th percentile of WRs or RBs. Speaking of which, there hasn't been much to tell between WRs and RBs in terms of draft value this season; the distributions for each position are remarkably similar, as evidenced by the graph.

Top players by premium-adjusted fantasy points at each position (no keepers or waiver pickups)

Now that we've taken a look at the big picture, let's take a look at each position and see what the savviest picks were in hindsight. We'll look at the top 6 players by premium adjusted FP for each position, excluding keepers and undrafted players (for now). First, the RBs:

Player	Current Owner	Drafted By	Draft Price	Total FP	Premium Adjusted FP
A. Kamara NO - RB	TakingTigerMountain	TakingTigerMountain	2	169.8	167.54
M. Ingram NO - RB	ThePelicanBrief	ThePelicanBrief	13	149.1	128.30
T. Gurley II LAR - RB	Trichotillomaniacs	Trichotillomaniacs	46	196.4	122.13
K. Hunt KC - RB	AEthernauts	AEthernauts	40	163.6	107.14
J. McKinnon Min - RB	HomeSpunNeckBloodz	HomeSpunNeckBloodz	2	101.78	100.42
E. Elliott Dal - RB	psych dog	psych dog	43	152.3	97.16

Alvin Kamara leads the pack here, with the highest adjusted FP by a whopping margin and the second highest FP for a running back overall. Mark Ingram and Todd Gurley come in a solid second and third before things begin to drop off more.

Moving on to WRs:

Player	Current Owner	Drafted By	Draft Price	Total FP	Premium Adjusted FP
A. Thielen Min - WR	Trichotillomaniacs	Trichotillomaniacs	1	118.6	118.60
D. Funchess Car - WR	AEthernauts	Trichotillomaniacs	1	94.3	94.30
A. Brown Pit - WR	AEthernauts	AEthernauts	65	174.94	93.81
L. Fitzgerald Ari - WR	ThePelicanBrief	ThePelicanBrief	11	102	89.86
K. Allen LAC - WR	TakingTigerMountain	TakingTigerMountain	27	121	89.54
J. Landry Mia - WR	Polk High Panthers	Polk High Panthers	12	102.68	89.39

The Trichs have the magic touch here, having drafted the best two WRs by value and breakout receiver of the year Adam Thielen. Of note: Antonio Brown still comes in third in adjusted FP, even with the second highest premium of any player...he's just that good.

On to TEs:

Player	Current Owner	Drafted By	Draft Price	Total FP	Premium Adjusted FP
Z. Ertz Phi - TE	SanFranciscoFerries	SanFranciscoFerries	7	106.3	98.33
T. Kelce KC - TE	Dijonnaise All-Stars	Dijonnaise All-Stars	36	107.4	72.91
K. Rudolph Min - TE	TakingTigerMountain	AEthernauts	3	73.7	71.76
C. Brate TB - TE	Polk High Panthers	Polk High Panthers	1	68	68.00
D. Walker Ten - TE	AEthernauts	AEthernauts	11	73.7	64.93

As it shakes out, only five non-keeper, non-waiver wire TEs scored enough to even sneak into this dataset. Translation: tight end is a garbage fantasy position. But among TEs, Zach Ertz paced the field this year, beneficiary of Wentz's dramatic rise (about which more below).

And finally, QBs:

Player	Current Owner	Drafted By	Draft Price	Total FP	Premium Adjusted FP
C. Wentz Phi - QB	psych dog	psych dog	4	237.98	228.71
R. Wilson Sea - QB	SanFranciscoFerries	SanFranciscoFerries	20	257.21	204.66
C. Newton Car - QB	ThePelicanBrief	ThePelicanBrief	4	204.9	196.92
K. Cousins Was - QB	Hanging w Mr Hooper	Hanging w Mr Hooper	6	205.17	192.18
M. Stafford Det - QB	AEthernauts	AEthernauts	3	187.85	182.91
P. Rivers LAC - QB	Dijonnaise All-Stars	Dijonnaise All-Stars	1	182.82	182.82

The Wentz Wagon leads the pack, coming in second in raw FP with a healthy lead in adjusted FP. Russell Wilson, the overall leader in total FP for QBs, is shaping up to be worth the $20 shelled out by the Ferries.

Top keepers and waiver pickups

To round things out, here are the top keepers by adjusted FP:

Player	Current Owner/Drafted By	Draft Price	Total FP	Premium Adjusted FP
D. Freeman Atl - RB	ThePelicanBrief	2	97.2	95.90
D. Hopkins Hou - WR	TakingTigerMountain	2	156.4	154.31
M. Thomas NO - WR	AEthernauts	1	94.1	94.10
S. Diggs Min - WR	Trichotillomaniacs	2	93.8	92.55
J. Graham Sea - TE	Trichotillomaniacs	2	94.7	93.44
R. Gronkowski NE - TE	ThePelicanBrief	50	114.2	68.71
T. Brady NE - QB	BldgDW3LL1NGTh1nk1ng	10	233.86	208.50

And the top waiver wire pickups by raw FP:

Player	Current Owner	Total FP
C. Thompson Was - RB	AEthernauts	125
D. Lewis NE - RB	Phat Girlz	104.66
T. Cohen Chi - RB	ThePelicanBrief	97.71
M. Jones Jr. Det - WR	ThePelicanBrief	123.1
R. Anderson NYJ - WR	ThePelicanBrief	117.7
R. Woods LAR - WR	Phat Girlz	95.5
E. Engram NYG - TE	Trichotillomaniacs	77
J. Goff LAR - QB	TakingTigerMountain	192.36

Hopkins and Brady stand out as great keeper values here, while Marvin Jones, Robby Anderson (of all people), and Jared Goff stand out among waiver pickups (pour one out for Chris Thompson after his season-ending broken leg).

That's all for now on the data front; after the playoffs we'll revisit things to see how the draft shook out in the fullness of time. Now for the picks, presented sans commentary given that TTM laid out the state of the league nicely earlier this week:

Nauts vs. Pelicans

Trichs vs. BDT

Hanging w Hooper vs. TTM [insert Zeus's thunderbolt here]

Dijonnaise vs. Ferries

Bloodz vs. psych dog

Girlz vs. Polk High

Picks record to date: 22-14 (with a heavy asterisk)

Playoff picture

Locks

Trichs - The Far East brigade looks to lock up the first place bye, having already secured a finish no worse than 2nd place.  With Gurley and Green leading the way flanked by the Minnesota threesome (including JuCo practice squad darlings Keenum and Thielen) the Trichs are tops in points by more than 150.  They've been over 110 points every week since week 6. Never below 95 on the season.   Trichs will roll into the playoff as the team to beat.

TTM - The Tigers have a lot to play for in final game of the season. A win would lock them into the 2nd bye and loss could cast them into the wildcard hinterlands. The Mile High club has struggled to get consistent performances from QB and hope that Goff can provide even a shadow of production at the position. The bye would go a long way toward protecting them from mercurial first round antics.  Surprise two way weapon Kamara and one man band Hopkins lead a  team that's scored anywhere between 81 and 145.

Nauts - The Nauts are going to the playoffs but could sail into the bye with a win and Tigers' loss. The Nauts are riding a four game win streak including back to back victories over the top two in the standings Trichs and TTM. No team is hotter. The core of the team is Brown and Hunt both of whom can break a game wide open

Wildcard Inside Track

psych dog - Even a loss could still see the dogs in the playoff picture, because they have a healthy lead in points. The old ones have been hit or miss based as much as anything on their attention. Wentz and Cooks give them real premium potential. Odds are they take the 4 spot and face off against five. 

SanFranciscoFerries - The Ferries have the cake walk against the rudderless Mustard Men in the last week. This should ensure that they can gain a playoff berth but nothing is certain. Questions still to be answered about Drake and Ajai could work out in the playoffs. The Ferries are young and that may well serve the purposes of a low seed run.  If they win and the dogs blow their game there's a chance the Ferries end up in 4.  Ferries losing is the best chance for wildcard outside track chaos, 

PelicanBrief - As the de-facto 6 seed the Pelicans are in the most danger of the post position teams. They play a better Nauts team with something to play for and have two winning percentage ties who will take over their sixth spot if they sacrifice it. Big weeks for Gronk and Ingram could make the Brief competitive at the highest levels.

Wildcard Outside Track - 

Phat Girlz - Monique's crew are the favorites to pick up the 6 spot despite being currently in 7th. They face a deficient Bundy squad as a heavy favorite and are only down 50 to pass Pelican even in a wild and wooly tie. 

HomespunNeckBloodz - A long shot. The Spinners could walk into a spot with a victory over a superior dogz team and losses by both Phat Girlz and PelicanBrief.  The Bloodz actually ran the table in a similar scenario in 2009. 

Week 12: Net Neutrality

No picks this week folks; but in the spirit of thankfulness--and preserving things worth giving thanks for--here's a link to a site that provides resources and direction for fighting to preserve net neutrality:

https://www.battleforthenet.com/

Kindred websites of this blog (and its twisted mashup of football and geopolitical apocrypha) would have got the short end of the stick without service providers treating internet traffic equally. So let's give props to something worth celebrating, as opposed to Great Moments in Colonialism.

Week 11 Picks: Five AIs that could replace Roger Goodell

By now Roger Goodell's demands for a $50 million salary and a private jet have been widely reported and roundly mocked in sports media of all stripes. Of course, the joke's on us--motherf*****r already makes a cool $30 million a year! And Jerry Jones's willingness to play the black hat among NFL owners notwithstanding, the smart money says that Goodell comes back on a contract that's obscene by any reasonable (read: non-sociopathic) standard.

That said, we can always dream of a world where Goodell is out of a job. Following the fashionable paranoia of the age, let's make it a world where Goodell has been automated off his perch as NFL commissioner, replaced by an AI. And since we're cynical even in our dreams, let's thumb through the pop culture racks for an AI commissioner that might be able to satisfy the NFL's requirements for the job, which apparently include high aptitudes for authoritarianism, capriciousness, and cruelty.

Without further ado, our candidates:

Hal 9000 ("2001: A Space Odyssey")

Pros: willing to dole out harsh punishment to those who defy his will; uber control freak

Cons: too much self-reflection and "inner depth"; disciplining the merchandise by killing it is a bridge too far/bad for business

Ash ("Alien")

Pros: pathological disregard for worker safety; healthy respect for violence

Cons: bleeds milk; British accent

GLaDOS ("Portal")

Pros: caprice is her middle name; keeps sadism fun

Cons: identifies as cis-female; see previous Con

The Tabernacle ("Zardoz")

Pros: extensive experience managing a population of "brutals"; enjoys enforcing arbitrary social rules

Cons: designed by vegetarians; unfamiliar with money

SkyNet ("The Terminator")

Pros: relentless in its pursuit of domination; capable of time travel, so no need for private jet

Cons: cyborg bodyguards creep out owners; wants to destroy humans and thus market for football

Now on to the picks....

Nauts vs. TTM

The Nauts hold the early edge in this face-off of the league's resident postpunk aficionados after Brown's Thursday night explosion. But Hopkins's ridiculous target percentage and Kamara's dynamic role in the Saints' offense mean this one is far from over. 

Trichs vs. Pelicans

The Trichs just keep rolling over the rest of the league like a tank, and this week looks like it will be no exception (the two tight end package adds some spice to the dominance). Meanwhile, the Pelicans will hope Pats-Raiders turns into a shootout, with Gronk and Amendola as the beneficiaries.

BDT vs. Ferries

With the Heideggerians turning ever inward--nary a peep on the waiver wire from its erstwhile-masters--the Ferries are a good bet to prevail in this west coast clash. Look for Russell Wilson and breakout RB Kenyan Drake to provide the winning margin. 

Hanging w Hooper vs. psych dog

Despite a trio of Thursday night lowballs, Hooper still looks primed to defeat a psych dog squad that has lost steam during the bye weeks. With Hurns out and a depleted WR corps, the dachsunds will hope for Brees and McCoy to turn back the clock in this one.

Dijonnaise vs. Polk High

Bloodz vs. Girlz

With Julio Jones facing a countertitration special in Matt Ryan and question marks all over the Bloodz's RB slots, the Girlz are primed to extend their four game winning streak, good for second longest in the league behind the Hair Pullers' reign of terror.

Picks record to date: 17-13

Week 9 Picks

The AEthernauts franchise apologizes for last week's radio silence; we were in the middle of relocating to sunny southern California, but now we've finally made it to our new headquarters in Burbank, where Jules and Vincent famously cleaned poor Marvin's exploded head off their car in "The Bonnie Situation." Good times!

Now on to some lightning picks (predicted winner in bold)...

Nauts vs. psych dog

With psych dog facing a rash of byes at the skill positions (and no doubt occupied by the duties of fatherhood), Tyrod Taylor's solid Thursday night performance should be more than enough cushion for the aerial explorers to land on their first victory in three weeks.

 Trichs vs. Ferries

The rampant Trichs have the magic touch right now, yanking hair into gold. Case in point: Matt Forte turned back the clock in a Thursday night spot start, going for over 20 fantasy points and putting the hair pullers in the driver's seat against the Ferries. Barring another week of Russell Wilson heroics, look for the Trichs to consolidate their hold on first place.

BDT vs. Polk High

The Heideggarians hold the early edge in a matchup of reeling franchises, with Polk High already locked into to a goose egg with Kelvin Benjamin sitting out his first game as a Bill. With theoretically favorable matchups for Carr, Evans, and Martin, look for BDT to be thrown-into victory this week.  

Hanging w Hooper vs. Girlz

While the Girlz have been plagued by inconsistent production from their star receivers and Matty Ice's mammoth Super Bowl hangover, they should still pull out the win this week against a Hooper squad kneecapped by Cousins's matchup with the Legion of Boom and Fuller's downgrade from Deshaun Watson to Tom Savage at the Texans QB slot.

Dijonnaise vs. Bloodz

Even without the injured Leonard Fournette, the Bloodz are a good bet to spin their way to victory against a Mustards roster ravaged by a mix of injuries, byes, and underperforming draft busts. Take the under on this one, gentlemen.

TTM vs. Pelicans

Look for the Pelicans to clear the Mountain in this week's marquee matchup; although the Yahoo bots have this pegged as a practical tossup, TTM's main man Hopkins figures to regress without Watson under center, and the Pelicans arguably hold the edge at every other skill position.

Picks record to date: 12-12