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Thursday, November 24, 2011

Dreadlocks Playoff Analysis



Week 11 separated the clear from the turbid.  AE clinched division title with a win over Tusken while TTM tripped on Trichs and stumbled through to the playoff berth.  It gets pretty muddy after that.  Pelican and BDT helped put themselves in control of playoff spots with their respectable wins while Tusken and Gross stalled.  SFF and Trichs remain in contention with week 11 wins as Cincy and dTk fell off the cliff with their losses.  Nevertheless it’s a messy race to say the least.  Here is the analysis of the playoff picture, which should get a lot clearer after some key matches this week.   

Dancehall Locks:  Clinched Playoffs

AEthernauts (9-2) 1251.80pts; vs. SFF (6-5), Phatz (1-10)
With an impressive 9 game winning streak on its back, AE has clinched for the bye.  Week 12 game against SFF is important for the hopeful opponent.

TakingTigerMountain (8-3) 1280.80pts; vs. Phatz (1-10), PGB (7-4)
TTM is the favorite to capture the second bye spot with a week 12 matchup against Phatz.  It may still come down to the regular season finale against Pelican, especially now it seems that playing Phatz is not an automatic W.

Locksteady: needs to win one to clinch

ThePelicanBrief (7-4) 1331.60pts; vs. Gross (6-5), TTM (8-3)
Just needs one win for a playoff berth, and can still sneak in for the week 14 bye if they win out the rest of regular season.  Tough propositions either way, as they’re matched against playoff-hopeful Gross and new parent TTM.  Have one of the toughest remaining schedules but also a favorable total fantasy points.

BldgDW3LL1NGTh1nk1ng (6-4-1); vs. Trichs (5-6), Cincy (4-7)
Have a relatively favorable schedule and a very potent offense that gives BDT one of the top offenses.  Probably only need to win one of the remaining regular season games.  The one tie against dTk in week 4 is now looking more like a W as it gives them a notch above the possible tie-break at 7 wins. 

 
Natty Dread: two wins or at mercy of gods

SanFranciscoFerries (6-5) 1177.00; vs. AE (9-2), Vicks (3-8)
Do lead the bunch in fantasy points and may come out a winner of tie break with 7 wins, but remaining games against divisional leader AE and tricky Vicks won’t be a breeze through. 

Tusken Raiders (6-5) 1162.00; vs. Vicks (3-8), dTk (4-6-1)
Their remaining schedule is manageable plus the decent total fantasy points puts them in the driving seat of this playoff coaster. 

GrossmanSacks (6-5) 1109.8; vs. Pelican (7-4), Trichs (5-6)
Very tough game against Pelican followed by the match against the feisty Trichs, which may be the most intriguing dog fight of this very tough playoff race depending on the outcome in  week 12.  Weak total points may eventually be the killer for Gross.

Ragga: needs to win out and a little bit of Rub-A-Dub

Trichotillomaniacs (5-6) 1049.80; vs.. BDT (6-4-1), Gross (6-5)
Hasn’t scored a lot of points this season and two remaining games both against teams in the center of playoff race makes it a difficult challenge, but it can happen for the Hairpullers if they win out. 

dETHRONED_king (4-6-1) 1162.20; vs. Cincy (4-7), Tusken (6-5)
It’s a very long shot but there’s a scenario in which two or less of the four teams with six wins win only one game in the remaining regular season and dTk win out to make the playoff, because of their tie in week 4.  Relatively high total fantasy points make it a fascinating possibility.

Cincinnati Dangles (4-7) 1155.20; vs. dTk (4-6-1), BDT (6-4-1)
Hard to believe that none of the six-win teams manage a win, but that none of them face each other makes it a remote possibility for Cincy to slip in as the sixth seed.  Solid offensive production throughout the season at least gives them hope.  Unfortunately, both of their opponents are deep in the contention and it won’t be easy to win out.  Can be the biggest dance crasher if they do.


Rude Boy: Dance Crashers

Vickskennel.com (3-8) 948.40; vs. Tusken (6-5), SFF (6-5)
Out of the race but two remaining games against both teams with six wins mean their performance for the next two weeks is crucial for many teams.

Phat Girlz (1-10) 956.60; vs. TTM (8-3), AE (9-2)
Has played the part in their big win over Gross in week 10, and can do some damage to the divisional race for the bye in week 12 against TTM.




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