In honor of week 12, the PSAS blog gives you an in depth look into the playoff race for 2010. Here are the expanded standings:
Ephesian School:
One of these four will win the 3rd seed, but all four are in play for the last two wildcards.
Vickskennel.com has the inside track with a statistical tie for the division lead, a division record tie-breaker. Interestingly, the Kennel Klub lost their first head-to-head with the Trichs and finish their season against their division rivals. It's entirely possible that that game could reshuffle the 3, 5, 6, 7 slots at the final hour.
Int'l Necronauts has a hard road to the division banner, in part because their scheduling department oddly will leave them with 1 fewer games played in division this year than the other squads. That being said, they win out and Vicks falters, they'll take the division. A final game against Milesian leaders BDT probably argues against this scenario, but the first match-up was a nail-biter, so hold on to your hats.
Trichs despite a recent slump still has a very good chance to go in at #3. If they can beat the Necronauts this week, they'll have a chance to knock off Vicks in the regular season finale for the Ephesian crown.
The Sith are mathematical longshots for the Ephesian crown, but still technically possible. If they win out at 6-6-1, they'll need all three other teams to finish at 6-7, or two of them tie and they could win on points.
General Wildcard
So, one of the three Ephesian teams in play will take the division and thus be out of the wild card picture. The good news for JGPB and GrossmanSachs is that there's some necessary attrition here, since the Trichs play both Vicks and the Nauts.
Scenario 1 - both Vicks and Nauts win next week, Pelicans, Grossman, and Trichs all lose . Vicks cliches the division because the worst their division record could be is 3-2, wheeras the Nauts would finish 2-2. Nauts also clinch a wildcard, and both the Sachs and Trichs have to hope that the 'Toids can upset JGPB in the final game to get in.
Scenario 2 - Pelicans, Grossman and Trichs all win and Vicks and Nauts lose. Trichs and Vicks play for the division in week 13. JGPB clinches a wildcard, Nauts & Sachs stay elligible but will have to wait for week 13.
Scenario 3 - Trichs win, everybody else loses. Nothing is settled and we wait for week 13 to see about the last three spots.
A few other random notes:
-you can review the tie break rules - but I'll provide my understanding. In deciding a division winner the first tie-break is division record. After that it is Total Points For. Wild cards are the same, except that divisional records do not factor. Head to head results do not factor in either.
-the Sith are technically in the wildcard race too, but any scenario that would result in that would probably result in their inclusion in the top 6 would probably make them division champion as well.
-although they are technically still in the running, The Thanatoids are essentially eliminated because of their Points For tie breaker is so low, they would probably have to amass upwards of 300 points to even be close.
Obviously all of this is unofficial and mindless musing, if anybody more math minded wants to correct my statistical acumen, please do so. And best of luck to all the teams as we enter the home stretch!
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